Paul Skenes has struggled for Pirates thanks in part to one ridiculous reason

The struggles of Pittsburgh Pirates starter Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, have garnered plenty of attention and analysis.

Some of the reasons for his struggles this year are already well known at this point, including his dip in fastball velocity and his changeup not being nearly as impressive. But there's another reason for his struggles.

ESPN's David Schoenfield revealed the other reason why Skenes has struggled this season, and it's quite the ridiculous one. His regression this year is thanks in part to bad luck.

Paul Skenes has regressed thanks in part to bad luck

"Primary cause: Worse luck on balls in play," Schoenfield highlighted. "... While he has certainly seen some bad BABIP (batting average on balls in play) luck with a porous Pittsburgh defense behind him, that alone doesn't explain his 4.97 ERA since May 17."

While bad luck isn't the only reason why Skenes has regressed for the Pirates this year, it does likely play a role in how much he's struggled.

His BABIP this season is .310, which means that when a hitter puts the ball in play, they have a .310 batting average, regardless of where it's hit, against Skenes this season.

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That's a bad number, but why is it not the only reason for his struggles? Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who's likely to be a top-three Cy Young Award finisher this season, has a much higher BABIP at .337.

Still, looking at his previous career numbers of a .284 BABIP in 2024 and a .273 BABIP in 2025, it's clear that this major jump is part of why he's struggling so much this season.

BABIP is a luck-based statistic, and while it's not the sole reason why Skenes has been poor this season, Pirates fans can, to a certain degree, blame this fall-off from Skenes in 2026 on bad luck.

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