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15 hours ago
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The San Diego Padres are one of the best teams in Major League Baseball in 2026, and that's even with Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and especially Manny Machado playing well below expectations.
It's still only May, so there's time for these stars to turn things around. But, with Machado, the question isn't about simply turning it around, but staving off the decline that comes for every aging player.
The Athletic's Jim Bowden, in predicting outcomes for many struggling veterans around MLB this season, gave Padres fans a welcome prediction that could mirror the career of Hall of Famer David Ortiz.
Padres get a fun David Ortiz-esque prediction on Manny Machado
"My best guess: He'll rebound," Bowden writes. "... Ortiz's age-33 season was in 2009, and he got off to a slow start, hitting just .230 that April and an ugly .143 that May. He looked like he was declining. He then hit .320 in June and went on to perform at a high level through age 40. Hopefully, that's going to be the case with Machado..."
For the Padres, Machado is signed through the 2033 season, when he'll be 40 years old. If Machado could follow the arc that Ortiz had in his career, it would be an ideal outcome for San Diego.
Even if Machado never returns to MVP-caliber form, being a solid player with above-average offense would be a huge win compared to how things are going this year.
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The 33-year-old third baseman is not playing well in 2026. He has a -0.2 bWAR in 47 games thanks to a .178 batting average and a .603 OPS. His 70 OPS+ is the worst of his career by a wide margin, with the previous low being a 98 back in 2012.
The Padres will need Machado to return to form, and soon, otherwise there will be significant concerns about how the rest of this $350 million contract will pan out for the franchise.
Bowden, a former MLB general manager, believes that Machado will turn things around as Ortiz did back in 2009. If he can't, the Padres are going to be stuck with a declining Machado on a mammoth contract that would be a disaster for San Diego through 2033.
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