Packers' Malik Willis compared to 2 all-time free agent busts by ESPN

Malik Willis is not a totally unprecedented free agent, but he's close.

The Green Bay Packers' former backup QB is on the open market, and he's probably the best quarterback available, at least by expected contract. Except he really hasn't played all that much in the NFL.

He's being discussed by most analysts with a decent amount of certainty, but it's important to remember that his sample size is still small.

"That's not to say Willis is destined for failure," ESPN's Ben Solak wrote in a new article on Thursday. "There simply is not a big sample of players in his situation hitting the open market. And all too often, that combination of early-round traits and productive play deludes decision-makers into acting with far more certainty than they actually have. Willis shredded the Ravens, but it was one game. One game!"

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Solak proved his point by comparing Willis to two major QB failures.

One was Brock Osweiler.

"Brock Osweiler started seven games with the Broncos before he left in free agency to join the Texans on a deal (four years, $72 million) so bad the Texans gave the Browns a pick to take it off their hands in the ensuing offseason," Solak writes.

The other? Kevin Kolb.

"Kevin Kolb started seven games with the Eagles before he was traded to Arizona and signed a five-year deal worth $63.5 million; he lost the starting job in an open camp competition with John Skelton the following year," Solak writes.

Yep, those would both be painful outcomes for anyone who signs Willis.

Again, like Solak wrote about, this isn't a destiny for failure, but it is a possibility.

"The range of outcomes for every quarterback in the NFL is much, much wider than we like to think," Solak adds.

For Willis, there's still plenty of unknown. It won't stop him from getting paid, but there is real risk here.

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