Orban and His Rival Amass Supporters for Pre-Election Showdown

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(Bloomberg) — Supporters of Viktor Orban and his rival were gathering in Budapest on Sunday for a final big test of strength before next month’s election, which polls suggest could bring an end to the Hungarian prime minister’s 16-year rule.

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The March 15 national holiday, commemorating the 1848 revolution in which Hungarians rose up against the Austrian Habsburgs, is traditionally a moment for dueling party rallies. But the proximity of the April 12 vote and international tensions give this year’s events even more charge. 

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Orban, the European Union leader who is closest to Russia and also an ally of US President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement, is locked in an increasingly acrimonious war of words with Ukraine. He accuses the war-ravaged country of cutting Hungary’s energy supplies in a bid to topple his government, while Kyiv has hit out at Orban for attempting to block aid.

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“Peace march today! Your country needs you,” Orban posted on his social media as backers of his Fidesz party — mostly older, and many from outside the capital — gathered on a square by the Danube.

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The EU’s longest-serving premier is due to speak later today at a rally in front of the Hungarian Parliament. His challenger, Peter Magyar, and his Tisza Party will stage its event later in the afternoon with a parade up to the City Park.

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Independent polls place Tisza as much as 20 points ahead of Fidesz, with voters voicing anger at economic stagnation, the poor state of public services and a series of corruption and child protection scandals.

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A former Fidesz party insider with a younger, more urban support base, Magyar is on surer ground in Budapest. The relative crowd sizes on a sunny day in early spring are likely to be crucial in shaping the final weeks of the campaign, according to Andrea Szabo, political scientist at Budapest university ELTE.

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“March 15 is the last occasion before the election when huge crowds will gather,” Szabo told news portal Telex. “Many will decide on that basis which side is in the majority, where to line up.”

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There are signs that Orban, a tenacious campaigner who has dominated Hungarian politics since the end of Communism in 1989, is closing the gap in opinion polls with his warnings — denied by Tisza — that the opposition would ensnare Hungary in the Ukraine war.

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In a nod to the febrile atmosphere that has surrounded the campaign in a deeply polarised country, Magyar urged his supporters to be disciplined. “Don’t rise to provocations, and don’t provoke,” he said on social media.

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