Opinion: ‘Vasa syndrome’ is killing Ontario’s auto sector

The Vasa was an over-designed 17th-century Swedish warship that sank on launch. Politically-engineered EV cars risk being today's equivalent

Published Jan 22, 2025  •  Last updated 0 minutes ago  •  3 minute read

The only way to avoid Vasa syndrome is to get kings, premiers and ministers out of the business of allocating big chunks of capital, no matter how much they appreciate all the friends it brings them, writes Michael Nitefor. Photo by Stina Stjernkvist/TT via Associated Press files

By Michael Nitefor

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When know-it-alls stick their noses where they don’t belong things usually doesn’t end well. Management science gives this problem a name: “Vasa syndrome.”

In Sweden, schoolchildren learn the story of the good ship Vasa, which today has its very own museum in Stockholm. In the 1620s, when King Gustav II Adolph wanted to outfit his navy with the most high-tech fighting ship in the world, competent Swedish naval architects designed him a seaworthy warship, named the Vasa, for sheaf of grain, the king’s heraldic symbol. But the king insisted it carry twice as many bronze cannons as the engineers had planned, as well as fancy upper-deck decorations. The result? The Vasa was fatally top-heavy and, when the wind hit it, capsized and sank to the bottom of Stockholm harbour — within 20 minutes of being launched.

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People in power promoting aspirational projects that run contrary to common sense is a constant refrain through history. And it usually ends about as well as the Vasa did. Our own era’s version of the Vasa is the electric-vehicle (EV) monoculture imposed by Ontario Premier Doug Ford and federal Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry François-Philippe Champagne on Ontario’s beleaguered auto sector — which is still largely in denial about the blockbuster EV fail that is about to hit. With three major American car manufacturers operating in Ontario, our auto sector is particularly vulnerable.

History doesn’t say how much warning King Gustav II Adolph got from his advisers but because no one has dared speak out our governments’ headlong, multi-billion plunge into EV and battery production is now teetering on the edge of economic disaster. For politicians, policy “strategists” and bureaucrats, deviation from Ottawa’s arrogant woke EV diktats just about guarantees the social-media-age equivalent of a walk off the plank. So it is not surprising, in our repressive zeitgeist, that no one has objected.

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Even the recently released Auditor General’s Report omitted mention of the billions “invested” in transforming Ontario into a world-leading EV and battery supply chain hub. Although the AG does delve into difficulties in the infrastructure, advertising and Ontario Place files, among others, the biggest-ticket-of-all EV and battery file is finessed.

But because the most costly anti-market techno-political undertaking in Ontario’s history has gone essentially unopposed, a high-stakes political problem is about to explode as the Trump Tariff and other “America First” realities hit hard. Unexamined commitments carry hidden dangers. The irrational EV obsession, pursued in the face of persuasive evidence, can only end in the loss of political and investor capital. Taxpayers will notice billions missing from the public larder. And now comes the 25-per cent tariff black swan.

Another Vasa example: the Toronto-based Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association (APMA), representing original equipment manufacturers, promoted its arguably dated EV “Arrow” project at the recent Consumer Electronics Show consumer electronics show in Las Vegas, and is now heading to Germany’s Hannover Messe in March. Unfortunately, the “Arrow” project mainly broadcasts to the world how poor we are at reading automotive markets, which are now rapidly pivoting away from pure EVs to hybrids.

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The “Arrow” is a home-made “concept EV,” designed by college students and a consortium of 50 government-funded Canadian companies supposedly demonstrating the Canadian auto industry’s ability to manufacture electric vehicles. Today, unfortunately, the “Arrow” mainly telegraphs a hopelessly passé image. (Pure EVs are so 2021!) Its sponsors would do well to get with the times, stop pushing all-electrics and start promoting Canadian automotive smarts around hybrids — which are now on a tear.

The only way to avoid Vasa syndrome is to get kings, premiers and ministers out of the business of allocating big chunks of capital, no matter how much they appreciate all the friends it brings them.

Michael Nitefor is founder and president of Toronto-based Air Lab, Inc.

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