OPEC Output Rose Last Month as Restart Continued, Survey Shows

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(Bloomberg) — OPEC raised oil production slightly last month as key members began gradually restarting another layer of halted supplies, according to a Bloomberg survey.

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries increased output by 50,000 barrels a day in October to 29.07 million a day, as the gains by top producers like Saudi Arabia were tempered by a pullback in others such as Libya and Venezuela.

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Last month marked the first stage of a new round of supply additions by some of the group’s members and their allies, as the Saudis and major partners began to revive a 1.65 million-barrel tranche — halted since 2023 — in monthly slivers.

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Riyadh and its allies stunned oil traders earlier this year by fast-tracking the return of a previous layer — amounting to 2.2 million barrels per day — in an apparent bid to reclaim global market share, despite warnings of an impending surplus.

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Their pivot from years of effort to defend crude prices has pressured futures lower, with contracts of international benchmark Brent down 14% this year at about $64 a barrel. Forecasters like the International Energy Agency see a record glut looming next year.

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In an apparent acknowledgment of the deteriorating market conditions, OPEC and its partners agreed last week that — following another supply increase in December — they would pause further hikes during the first quarter of 2026.

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In the meantime, group members are proceeding with their scheduled increases.

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The Saudis added 40,000 barrels per day in October to pump an average of 10.02 million barrels a day, in line with their agreed target. Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait also raised output.

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Those gains were offset by declines in two of the countries that are exempted from the OPEC+ quota system because of production challenges: Libya and Venezuela. Output at the two nations collectively dropped by 120,000 barrels a day, according to the survey.

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Libya’s exports have been erratic over the past decade as the North African nation grapples with a host of political and security troubles. Venezuela has been contending with US sanctions as President Donald Trump intensifies pressure on the country’s leadership.

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READ: Venezuelan Regime Change May Open Oil’s Floodgates: Javier Blas

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The eight OPEC+ members currently involved in supply adjustments will meet to consider plans for early next year on Nov. 30. The full 22-nation OPEC+ alliance will also meet that day to review its strategy for 2026.  

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Bloomberg’s production survey is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials and estimates from consultants Rapidan Energy Group, FGE, Kpler Ltd. and Rystad Energy.

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—With assistance from Prejula Prem, Anthony Di Paola, John Deane and Christopher Charleston.

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