Orban Dangles Energy Deals to Sway Trump on Russia Oil Sanctions

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The deals also include defense contracts and an unspecified financial agreement, Hungarian officials have said. 

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A White House official, asked to comment on the effort, said Trump had a good relationship with Orban and that the pair would discuss areas of mutual interest. While the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, declined to comment directly on the Hungarian efforts, they said to anticipate deals spanning various industries to emerge from the talks.

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Budapest has ramped up purchases of Russian energy since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, securing temporary relief from European Union sanctions and taking advantage of lower prices for Russian fuel.

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But the strategy is unsustainable, especially in the face of an EU plan to end all Russian energy imports after 2027, according to Tamas Pletser, a Budapest-based energy analyst at Erste Group Bank in Budapest. The “realistic goal,” he said in a note to clients, was for Orban to try to win a one-year delay from Trump to allow more time for the transition away from Russia.

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A failure to achieve an exemption may raise fuel prices at the pumps by as much as 10%, he said, also noting the production squeeze at Hungary’s sole refinery after a major fire last month.

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Such a scenario could bear grave risks for Orban. A stagnant economy, allegations of widespread corruption and a cost-of-living crisis have helped propel a nascent opposition party into a double-digit lead in some polls ahead of a parliamentary election in April. The contest is the most serious challenge to Orban’s uninterrupted rule since 2010.

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Keeping Hungarian energy prices in check has been a steadfast political promise — one premised on the continued import of cheaper Russian energy. But it’s come at a cost. 

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The doubling down on Russian ties, along with a years-long political campaign directed against Ukraine at home and the erosion of democratic institutions — have increasingly isolated Orban within the EU and NATO. The Hungarian leader came under particular pressure under former President Joe Biden. 

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A Friend in Washington

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Orban openly supported Trump even when his re-election seemed unlikely. The two have struck up a friendship and frequently laud each other’s political acumen and strongman-style leadership. The exchange in Washington will be their sixth bilateral meeting, in addition to chats on the sidelines of summit and phone conversations.

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“Since Donald Trump’s return to office, everything has changed,” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Wednesday. “Hungary is now seen as a friend in Washington and the White House, instead of as an adversary.”

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Indeed, the Trump administration has lifted sanctions imposed on Orban’s chief of staff and secret services chief, Antal Rogan, and ended visa restrictions. Both were a last-minute salvo from the outgoing Biden team.

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But Washington has yet to restore a bilateral tax treaty with Hungary. And there’s little sign of a surge in investments that would change Orban’s political fortunes. Instead of a political boon from a fellow traveler on the political right, the Hungarian leader is contending with a potential economic hit. 

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“The question comes down to what this political friendship is really worth,” Pletser said.

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—With assistance from Kate Sullivan, Derek Wallbank and Piotr Skolimowski.

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