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(Bloomberg) — Oil held steady as US President Donald Trump’s threats against Iran are keeping the market on edge.
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West Texas Intermediate traded near $65 a barrel, while Brent held close to $70 after settling at the highest since July last session.
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Iran said it was ready for talks if Trump ends threats against the country. Earlier in the week he threatened a fresh attack, citing an armada of ships sailing to the Middle East. Oil’s ascent persisted despite de-escalatory remarks, with traders wary of going into the weekend short amid Iran risks.
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In the US, coastal cities are bracing for a record-setting cold spell to intensify in coming days, in a potential disruption to production and boost to heating demand. The storm would come just a week after Winter Storm Fern shut in nearly 2 million barrels a day of US oil production at its peak, according to Energy Aspects.
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“Given Trump’s recent rhetoric, one would have to be fairly brave to head into the weekend short the market,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore, referring to Iran.
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West Texas Intermediate is set for the biggest monthly gain since 2023. Traders have flocked to the options market, and Citigroup Inc. predicts the risk premium for Brent is around $7 to $10 a barrel.
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Crude had earlier fallen alongside other markets as Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair led to a debate about how far he would cut interest rates.
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The US president’s messaging has shifted from punishing Tehran for its deadly crackdown on protesters, to this week extracting a new nuclear agreement. That threat carried more weight after Trump ordered naval assets to the region, with an aircraft-carrier strike group recently arriving in the Middle East.
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Market concerns are primarily focused on how any fallout from an escalation in tensions could impact Iranian oil flows as well as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage separating Iran and the Arabian peninsula. Tankers carrying crude and liquefied natural gas transit through the strait daily to deliver cargoes worldwide.
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The Associated Press reported that Iran issued a warning to ships at sea on Thursday that it planned to run a drill on Sunday and Monday that would include live firing in the strait, citing two Pakistani security officials.
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Members of OPEC+ will gather online on Sunday to review supply policy for March — with expectations for the group to stick with a pause — and investors will be watching for any commentary regarding Iran. The Islamic Republic is the fifth-biggest producer in the alliance, when including Russia.
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—With assistance from Rong Wei Neo.
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English (US)