Oil prices may face further pressure amid OPEC+ supply glut: Seth R Freeman

Last Updated: Aug 04, 2025, 10:22:00 AM IST

Synopsis

Seth R Freeman of GlassRatner Advisory notes India's role in stabilizing oil prices by purchasing discounted Russian oil amidst tariff announcements. He anticipates continued market volatility due to labor market adjustments, tariffs, and political news, especially with low summer trading volumes. An expected increase in global oil supply may further pressure prices, potentially leading to a price decline.

"There is an expectation of lower oil prices and the logic I was reading about India's position on not changing its oil purchases from Russia in response to the tariff announcement and the explanation that India was somehow helping keep prices stable by absorbing lower priced oil from Russia, I found that very interesting, says," Seth R Freeman, GlassRatner Advisory.

Now, the US has experienced a very volatile past week and it has historically been a difficult week for US stocks. Now going forward, how should the street prep for this kind of volatility and do you expect this spillover to continue for the Indian markets as well?
Seth R Freeman: Well, the combination of the adjustments in labour market statistics plus the tariffs plus political news is going to definitely at least maintain if not increase volatility particularly as I have mentioned previously volumes are relatively low because of the summer vacation which can really move the market disproportionately. So, in many ways we really have to look at the after Labour Day period to get a better sense.

Also wanted your thoughts on the oil market because of the OPEC plus outcome. It was largely on expected lines, but supply is likely to increase in the global market. Do you expect further pressure on oil especially from the kind of levels that we are seeing, currently it is at $68, $69 per barrel. Could it fall further especially because of supply glut that we are expecting for the rest of this calendar year?
Seth R Freeman: There is an expectation of lower oil prices and the logic I was reading about India's position on not changing its oil purchases from Russia in response to the tariff announcement and the explanation that India was somehow helping keep prices stable by absorbing lower priced oil from Russia, I found that very interesting.

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