Oil prices dip as investors assess trajectory of US-Iran tensions

Synopsis

Oil prices saw a slight dip today after a significant rise yesterday. Investors are watching developments between the United States and Iran. Both nations have increased military presence in a key oil region. Talks are ongoing, but progress remains slow. U.S. oil inventories fell last week, contrary to expectations. Official inventory data is expected today.

Oil prices eased in early Asia trade on Thursday, following the previous day's 4% jump, as investors assessed efforts by the U.S. and Iran to resolve tensions while both sides have stepped up military activity in the key oil-producing region.

Brent futures fell 12 cents, or 0.2% to $70.23 a barrel by 0110 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 8 cents, or 0.1%, to trade ‌at $65.11 a ⁠barrel.

Both benchmarks ⁠settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday, posting their highest settlements since January 30, as traders priced in potential supply disruptions amid concerns of U.S.-Iran conflict.

"Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain high, but the prevailing view is that full-scale armed conflict is unlikely, prompting a wait-and-see approach," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.

"U.S. President Donald Trump does not want a sharp rise in crude prices, and even if military ⁠action occurs, ‌it would likely be limited to short-term air strikes," Kikukawa added.

A little bit of progress was made during Iran talks in Geneva this week but distance ⁠remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday, adding that Tehran was expected to come back with more details in a couple of weeks.

Iran issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) that it plans rocket launches in areas across its south on Thursday from 0330 GMT to 1330 GMT, according to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration website.

At the same time, the U.S. has deployed warships near Iran, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance saying Washington was weighing whether to continue diplomatic engagement with ‌Tehran or pursue "another option".

Satellite images show that Iran has recently built a concrete shield over a new facility at a sensitive military site and covered it in soil, experts say, advancing work ⁠at a location reportedly bombed by Israel in 2024.

Meanwhile, two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended on Wednesday without a breakthrough, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accusing Moscow of stalling U.S.-mediated efforts to end the four-year-old war.

U.S. crude and gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday, contrary to expectations in a Reuters poll that crude stocks would rise by 2.1 million barrels in the week to February 13.

Official U.S. oil inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration are due on Thursday.

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