Oil Price Today (April 29): Crude oil crosses $110, extends gain for 8th straight session. Here’s why

Synopsis

Oil prices continued their rally for an eighth consecutive day, driven by reports of a potential extended U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. This move, aimed at pressuring Iran's economy and oil exports, could prolong supply disruptions from the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz's reduced accessibility has already significantly impacted energy supplies, leading to fears of a fresh inflation crisis.

Oil prices climbed again on Wednesday, extending their recent rally to an eighth consecutive day after reports that the U.S. plans to continue its blockade of Iranian ports, a move that could keep supply disruptions from the Middle East in place for longer.

According to a Wall Street Journal report late Tuesday, citing U.S. officials, President Donald Trump has asked aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. The report said Trump intends to keep pressuring Iran’s economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from its ports.

Crude oil price on April 29
Brent crude futures for June rose 52 cents, or 0.47%, to $111.78 a barrel at 0154 GMT, climbing for an eighth day. The June contract expires on Thursday and the more active July contract was at $104.84, up 0.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for June rose 57 cents, or 0.57%, to $100.50 a barrel after ⁠gaining 3.7% ‌in the previous session, climbing for seven out of the last eight days.

Further, the departure of UAE, one of OPEC’s most influential members, could add further volatility to oil markets. The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, has been one of the few producers with meaningful spare capacity to help stabilise prices during supply shocks.

Trump also said Iran has asked the U.S. to lift the naval blockade of the strait while both sides negotiate an end to hostilities that have severely disrupted energy supplies from the region. The Strait of Hormuz has been largely impassable since fighting began in late February, pushing energy prices higher as flows of crude, natural gas and refined products were reduced.

The International Energy Agency has described the situation as the biggest supply shock in history, raising fears of a fresh inflation crisis.

Although a ceasefire has been in place since early April, the U.S. and Iran remain at odds over peace talks. CNN reported on Tuesday, citing people close to the negotiations, that mediators expect Iran to submit a revised proposal to end the war within the next few days. Trump said on Truth Social that Tehran wants the key oil shipping route reopened “as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation.”

What’s next?
Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90 a barrel for Brent crude and $83 for WTI, citing reduced Middle East output.

“The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock,” Reuters reported, citing Goldman Sachs analysts.

According to a Haitong Futures note cited by Reuters, the current ceasefire phase increasingly appears to be preparation for further conflict. It added that if U.S.-Iran talks fail to make meaningful progress by the end of April and hostilities resume, oil prices could rise to fresh highs for the year.

Macquarie estimates crude prices may remain supported in the $85 to $90 range in the near term, with a gradual move toward $110 as supply conditions improve. It also warned that prolonged disruptions through April could push Brent as high as $150 per barrel.

Nuvama Institutional Equities said an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 million barrels per day, could lift crude prices into the $110 to $150 range.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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