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(Bloomberg) — Oil held a two-day advance as rising tensions in the Middle East centered on OPEC member Iran added a risk premium to prices.
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West Texas Intermediate traded above $64 a barrel after gaining 1.7% over the prior two sessions, while Brent ended near $69. The US said on Monday that US-flagged vessels should stay as far as possible from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The warning came despite signs of progress in nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran.
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The Strait of Hormuz is a critical trade artery for Middle East energy shipments that links a slew of producers to global markets, especially in Asia. Tehran has threatened to close the maritime chokepoint during periods of geopolitical tension, though it has never actually followed through.
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Crude has pushed higher this year as recurrent geopolitical flare-ups eclipsed concerns a global surplus would lift inventories and weigh on prices. A raft of data this week will give traders fresh insights into market conditions, starting with an update from the official US forecaster later Tuesday.
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Washington has amassed a powerful military force in the Middle East, even as it also pursues talks with Tehran over its nuclear ambitions, with an initial round held in Oman last week and more expected in the coming days. The face-off has spurred concerns that the US may opt to strike targets in Iran, potentially disrupting oil flows. The region accounts for about a third of global supplies.
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“Both Washington and Tehran seem to have put a positive spin on the Oman talks, signaling that further discussions will likely be held in the coming weeks,” RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a note. During a recent visit to the Gulf, “several well-placed regional observers suggested that the fear of higher oil prices could ultimately push President Trump to seek a negotiated settlement,” they added.
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In recent days, ship-tracking data have shown that some supertanker operators — nervous about rising US-Iran tensions and potential risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — were speeding their vessels through the waterway.
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Elsewhere on Monday, US forces boarded a Venezuelan-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean, expanding Washington’s geographic scope in cracking down on the shadow fleet used to export sanctioned crude. Last month, the US seized former President Nicolas Maduro and asserted control over the nation’s oil industry.
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