Oil Climbs, US Futures Dip on Fresh Iran Strikes: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — Oil jumped and US equity futures fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, while conflicting claims over the status of the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty.

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S&P 500 contracts dropped 0.2% in early trading Monday after the underlying gauge closed 0.4% higher on Friday. Brent crude climbed 3% at the open, while the dollar rose against most major peers. 

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The US military launched strikes Sunday aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said. The latest action followed Iranian drone and missile attacks on US allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar in response to earlier US strikes. 

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Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz added to the uncertainty, with Iran saying it had closed the waterway while the US military and maritime authorities said shipping continued through its southern route.

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“The latest developments over the weekend suggest markets may face a volatile start to trading which could test the glass half full mentality we have seen recently,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

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Investors are also bracing for a pivotal earnings season, with results from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. due Tuesday. S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% jump in second-quarter profits, though the benchmark’s rally has become increasingly reliant on gains outside the technology megacaps that have driven markets in recent years.

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In Europe, Deutsche Bank strategists expect Stoxx 600 firms to report a 12% jump in second-quarter earnings, following a 7% rise in the first quarter. Profits for MSCI Asia Pacific constituents are estimated to rise 39%, up from 6.9% in the previous three months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

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The outlook is being tested by persistent inflation, higher energy prices and growing expectations the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates, threatening corporate margins. With US and global equities trading near record highs and valuations elevated, investors see little room for disappointing results.

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Investors will closely gauge this week’s US inflation data, after oil’s biggest weekly gain since mid-May revived concerns that higher energy costs could further complicate the disinflation story. Consumer and producer price reports — the last inflation readings before the Fed meets later this month — will offer fresh clues on the path of interest rates.

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Traders have ramped up bets on further tightening, with swaps pricing almost 40 basis points of Fed hikes by December, up from about 15 basis points in early June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both headline and core inflation to have eased slightly in June, though both are forecast to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.