Gold Declines as Renewed US-Iran Strikes Raise Rate-Hike Bets

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(Bloomberg) — Gold declined after the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, sending energy prices higher and once more raising the prospects for interest-rate hikes to combat inflation.

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Bullion fell as much as 1.2% to below $4,070 an ounce on Monday, having lost 1.4% last week. Confusion governed the status of energy transit via the Strait of Hormuz, with the US denying an earlier statement by Iran that the waterway would be closed “until further notice.” American forces started attacks to ensure freedom of navigation, according to US Central Command.

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For gold traders, the escalation of fighting in the Middle East raises concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat stubborn inflation. Minutes of the Fed’s June meeting released last week showed a few policymakers saw a case for raising rates, though they ultimately backed the decision to keep them steady.

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More generally, the minutes reflected growing concern among US central bank officials over inflation just as worries over the labor market receded slightly. Higher borrowing costs are typically a headwind for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.

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The latest tensions arrive before Kevin Warsh makes his first appearance before Congress as Fed chairman on Tuesday. The House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington will be preceded by June consumer price figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Gold is down by more than a fifth since the Iran war started in late February, with a wave of profit-taking ending a three-year bull run and briefly pushing the metal below $4,000 for the first time since November. Hedge funds and money managers trimmed bullish bets on gold to 114,854 contracts for the week ended July 7, weekly CFTC data on futures and options showed Friday.

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Spot gold dropped 1.2% to $4,070.98 an ounce at 7:05 a.m. in Singapore. Silver slumped 2.1% to $58.64 an ounce. Platinum and palladium also fell. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, rose 0.2%.

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