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(Bloomberg) — Nigeria’s annual inflation slowed in April, shrugging off the impact of a currency slump and increasing the chance of another rate pause next week.
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Consumer prices rose 23.7% from 24.2% in March, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday. Prices rose 1.86% in the month. The median estimate of five economists in a Bloomberg survey was 23.5%.
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A more than 4% drop in the naira against the dollar since April, driven by a slump in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export, was offset by cheaper gasoline and food costs increasing at a slower pace.
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Annual food inflation eased to 21.26% in April from 21.8% a month earlier and core price growth cooled to 23.39% from 24.4%.
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The inflation reading may persuade policymakers, who have only four months of data to guide their decision, to pause the key interest rate for a second time in a row at a record 27.5% on May 20.
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What Bloomberg Economics Says…
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“Price gains will likely be sticky for the next several months as the moderating effect of cooler energy prices is countered by the inflationary impact of naira losses. We expect Nigeria’s central bank to hold rates when it meets later this month as policymakers wait for more clarity on the inflation outlook under the new CPI gauge.”
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— Yvonne Mhango, Bloomberg Africa economist
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The bureau overhauled the consumer price index for the first time in 16 years in January and changed the reference year to 2024.
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Governor Olayemi Cardoso said Monday that inflation is still elevated and policymakers will continue their course of “orthodox policy that will see inflation moderate, and interest rates will follow as well.”
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—With assistance from Simon Lee.
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(Updates with comment from Bloomberg Africa economist)
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English (US)