NHL Draft Lottery odds, explained: Updated chances for every team to win Gavin McKenna sweepstakes

With the NHL Playoffs underway, those who fell short of this year's postseason will be tuning into an event catered to them.

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET just prior to when the puck drops in the Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche Game 2. In this year's draft, the consensus No. 1 overall pick will be Penn State's Gavin McKenna.

The Vancouver Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks, and New York Rangers are all teams to look out for to land the prodigy. Or, he may land elsewhere with a long-shot team.

Here's who has the best shot of landing Penn State's star, or the No. 2 pick right after his name is called.

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How does the NHL Draft Lottery work?

Each team's odds in the 2026 draft lottery represent that team's chances of moving up in the lottery. However, only the teams with the 11 lowest-point total teams in the league can earn the No. 1 overall pick, as teams can only rise 10 spots in the lottery.

During the NHL Draft lottery, a machine is equipped with 14 ping pong balls that can land in 1,001 different outcomes. Each team will receive a value of four-digit combinations that translate to its odds of winning the lottery multiplied by 10. The team with the best odds has 185 possible four-digit combinations, or an 18.5% chance, to win the lottery. 

The teams with the 12th-16th best odds can only pick as high as 2-6 if they "win" the lottery. After the first overall pick's lottery, there will then be another draw for the second overall pick. Teams 13-16 can only jump up to picks 3-6, so if any of those teams win, the team with the next best odds will select second. 

The NHL lottery odds are equipped with a reverse-standings order. The best team to miss the playoffs, this year's Washington Capitals, will have the lowest odds to move up in the lottery. 

Last season, despite having only a 3.5% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, the New York Islanders defied the odds and landed the prize of the lottery. The Islanders had the 10th-lowest odds to win the lottery, but were able to draft consensus No. 1 pick Canadian defenseman Matthew Schaefer.

MORE: How did the Canadiens win despite having a record-low amount of shots in Game 7?

NHL Draft lottery odds 2026

As seen in last season's lottery, the odds might not reflect what actually happens in the event. Along with last year's Islanders, the Rangers had a mere 2% chance of landing the top pick in the 2020 Draft. Several ping pong ball bounces later, they landed the highly sought-after No. 1 pick that went on to be Alexis Lafreniere.

This year, the Vancouver Canucks have the best chance of winning the lottery. After Vancouver, the Chicago Blackhawks (13.5%) and the New York Rangers (11.5%). Here is how the odds look for the 12 teams. 

Here's a complete look at every team's lottery odds and who has the best chance to win the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes.