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The biggest surprise of the Week 1 games to kick off the 2026 NFL season was the fact there were limited surprises. Most of the favorites won with few exceptions.
Another twist was the fact there was so much scoring in Week 1, shattering several point totals for games when the early-season trend had been under. For a change, the offenses are ahead of the defenses, but the overs will be more difficult to hit as the season progresses.
Will there be more upsets in Week 2, with some desperation kicking in for teams that have started 0-1 and want to avoid 0-2? Or will form hold as there is more separation between the league's haves and have-nots?
Here's Sporting News' latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
All spreads and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
MORE: NFL Week 2 picks straight up
NFL picks against the spread for Week 2
Game of Midweek: Lions at Bills (-4.5, 53.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Lions and Bills both won some wild 30-plus point shootouts in Week 1, so this is quite the explosive way to start the week between 1-0 teams loaded both in the running and passing games. Buffalo's defense should rebound better at home while Detroit is coming off a near-historic breakdown. Jahmyr Gibbs vs. James Cook will be speedy good fun, but the difference will be Josh Allen at home vs. Jared Goff on the road. The Bills open their new stadium in style.
Pick: Bills win 34-27 and cover the spread.
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Bills move to No. 1, Chargers take a tumble
AFC Game of the Week: Steelers at Patriots (-4.5, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots wasted a strong defensive effort in Seattle because of Drake Maye and the offense making too many mistakes. Now Maye goes back to operating without injured wide receiver A.J. Brown. The good news is New England will be able to have Maye face less of T.J. Watt, Alex HIghsmith and the visiting Pittsburgh pass rush with TreVeyon Henderson on track to return to help Rhamondre Stevenson in the running game. The Steelers can be exploited for big plays on the ground and the Patriots should be well positioned to have more effective pressure on Aaron Rodgers.
Pick: Patriots win 23-17 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Giants at Rams (-7.5, 48.5 o/u)
Monday 8.15 p.m. ET, ESPN and ABC
The Giants are feeling giddy early in the John Harbaugh era after their impressive all-around work against the Cowboys. Jaxson Dart is better in Year 2 and has much more versatile weaponry and rushing depth. New York gets a break for Andrew Thomas and the offensive line with no Myles Garrett and should move the ball well. But the Rams' offense will find its groove too, back in Los Angeles to avoid a second consecutive prime-time upset.
Pick: Rams win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Ravens (-8.5, 47.5 o/u) over Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens have a lot more energy overall with the young coaching combination of Jesse Minter and Declan Doyle. They are active again on pass defense and the running game dominance and passing explosion are promising. The Saints will have little answers for that 1-2 punch on the road and Tyler Shough can't catch up this time.
Pick: Ravens win 35-17 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Jaguars (+2.5, 44.5 o/u) over Broncos
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jaguars won in Denver last December, 34-20, and they continue to match up well with the Broncos. Trevor Lawrence is laser-focused in Year 2 of Liam Coen's offense with the best skill support he's ever had with so many receiving options. That can make it tricky for the Broncos' defense to handle all over the field. Meanwhile, don't forget about the Jaguars' defense, which keeps flexing with young playmakers who will get after Bo Nix and force him into critical mistakes.
Pick: Jaguars win 24-20.
Panthers (-1.5, 44 o/u) at Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers' offense would have won most weeks with its 37-point output against the Bears with Bryce Young looking sharp throwing downfield to his best wide receivers. They also ran well when needed. Unfortunately, they lost by giving up 291 rushing yards and plenty of chunk plays on the ground. Bijan Robinson will be a major problem with his mega touches, regardless of who's the QB.
Pick: Falcons win 27-24.
MORE: Ranking the top 25 running backs in 2026
Vikings at Bears (-5.5, 49.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Keep rolling with the Bears who keep getting master motivated by Ben Johnson to step on the gas for four quarters. Caleb Williams and the running game came out firing and focused in Carolina. Brian Flores shouldn't shy away from his blitzing but Williams is well equipped to beat it with his arm or his legs. Chicago's defense will give up the yards again, but Minnesota won't keep up with whoever it has at QB.
Pick: Bears win 38-24 and cover the spread.
MORE: Week 1 overreactions - Bears unstoppable, Packers cooked
Eagles (-7, 39.5 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles have picked the right offense to make Jalen Hurts comfortable throwing the ball intermediate-to-deep without A.J. Brown. Saquon Barkley seems a bit rejuvenated early and the defense gets a break vs. Cam Ward after the late breakdown against the Commanders. Vic Fangio will sink his teeth into a new-look offense having plenty of growing pains.
Pick: Eagles win 27-10 and cover the spread.
Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Packers (-3.5, 44.5 o/u) at Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The two teams that used to be quarterbacked by Rodgers meet with the Jets, not the Packers, being 1-0. Jordan Love needs to rebound from his late blitz meltdown against the Vikings and the Packers can help by digging deep for a running game. Geno Smith sparked the Jets' offense well in the opener, which will make it tough on Matt LaFleur's team to rebound in a second straight road game.
Pick: Packers win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Browns at Buccaneers (-8.5, 40.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Buccaneers didn't protect the ball well in Cincinnati with Baker Mayfield having a rough outing. Mayfield has the right opponent, his former team with a bad defense, to rip to shreds in Tampa's home opener. Baker will burn the Browns plenty, who don't have much of anything to be competitive in another Florida game.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-10 and cover the spread.
MORE: How much longer can Browns start Deshaun Watson?
Bengals at Texans (-3, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans' offense thought it would win by scoring 31 points on the Bills, but the defense couldn't stop a red-hot Allen. The takeaway was C.J. Stroud's great play with David Montgomery helping to stabilize the power running game. The vaunted pass rush will be eager to tee off on Joe Burrow to make amends.
Pick: Texans win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Raiders at Chargers (-7, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers don't deserve this number at home after the debacle against the Cardinals, given the Raiders have the same kind of new offensive-minded head coach energy with Klint Kubiak. The Chargers' run defense is worrisome and the Raiders have an improved defense overall to keep Justin Herbert slumping. Jim Harbaugh will need to get his team to win an ugly game to avoid 0-2.
Pick: Chargers win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Commanders at Cowboys (-3.5, 50.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Washington had a strong fourth quarter to feel more confident in Jayden Daniels and his offensive support going forward. But it's doubtful Daniels and the running game can execute the same kind of ball-control success against the Giants. Dak Prescott will see the field open up plenty for his passing game to get back on track. Dallas will be much better prepared for this division game at home vs. former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
Pick: Cowboys win 31-24 and cover the spread.
Seahawks (-4.5, 41.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks' defense didn't lose much of its edge despite some depth losses in free agency. The Cardinals are improved offensively under Mike LaFleur with their newfound balance from running backs Tyler Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love. That presents a tougher division challenge than expected but Seahawks remain the better overall team.
Pick: Seahawks win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Dolphins at 49ers (-13.5, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Dolphins look lost offensively, not a surprise with little to help the running of Malik Willis and De'Von Achane. The talent and experience is bare in relation to what the 49ers have with Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers' defense also has great momentum from Week 1 and will stay hot at home.
Pick: 49ers win 38-13 and cover the spread.
Colts at Chiefs (-6.5, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock
The Colts don't have much working on offense beyond Jonathan Taylor with Daniel Jone and Alec Pierce getting back from injuries. This isn't the best recovery game for them after being ripped by the Ravens. Expect them to get gashed by Kenneth Walker III as Kansas City can lean on the running game and big pass plays, too.
Pick: Chiefs win 31-17 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 1 straight up record: 13-3
- Week 1 against the spread record: 10-6
- Season-to-date straight up record: 13-3
- Season-to-date against the spread record: 10-6
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