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Week 10 was definitely rough for Sporting News' NFL game picks and predictions against the spread. There were some key upsets, big blowouts and wild finishes to change the fortunes of many team results.
The only way to recover is to dive right into another unpredictable week.
Here's the Week 11 fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications for a slate back up to 15 games.
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
POWER RANKINGS: Patriots, Seahawks, Lions leap; Bills, 49ers, Steelers drop for Week 11
NFL picks against the spread for Week 11
Game of Midweek: Jets at Patriots (-11.5, 44.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Jets have won two consecutive games in gritty fashion for Aaron Glen over the Bengals and Browns. The Patriots have been relentless with their offense and improving defense with seven straight wins under their first-year former defensive player, coach Mike Vrabel. New York is playing better defense and special teams to help itself, but New England has the big edge in offense with Drake Maye.
Pick: Patriots win 30-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: How Drake Maye outperformed Baker Mayfield in Week 10 battle
Game of the Week: Lions at Eagles (-1.5, 49 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Lions saw Dan Campbell take over offensive play-calling and got their attack sizzling against an overmatched Washington defense. Philadelphia presents a different kind of challenge with its personnel and scheming and also can keep up on the scoreboard. The lost NFC title game from last season is a classic with the team trading big play blows through ground and air until the final home-team possession.
Pick: Eagles win 41-38 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Packers (-8.5, 44.5 o/u) over Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears came through late with just enough points to deliver in this same matchup for an NFC North team, getting a break from no Jaxson Dart after a late concussion. There's a potential of Dart not being cleared for this game and Russell Wilson being thrown back at Green bay. If Dart does play, this would be one of his hardest matchups yet. On the other side, this is a get-well game for Jordan Love.
Pick: Packers win 27-13 and cover the spread
MORE: Ranking Giants' best replacements for Brian Daboll
Upset of the Week: Seahawks (+2.5, 48.5 o/u) over Rams
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Seahawks match up well with the Rams in Los Angeles because they travel well and play stout run defense. They are a little leaky against the pass, but more so vs. backs and tight ends than receivers. They can pressure Matthew Stafford to cool off a little more than the Rams can rattle Sam Darno.d.
Pick: Seahawks win 27-24.
MORE: How Matthew Stafford has built MVP case
Commanders at Dolphins (-2, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network (from Madrid, Spain)
The Commanders' defense cannot hold up anymore vs. big plays, running or passing. It can get gashed through the middle and also be stretched vertically by speedy backs and receivers. That's not good news vs. De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle, who help Tua Tagovailoa win another game vs. his fellow alliterative Saint Louis high school alum from Honolulu, Marcus Mariota.
Pick: Dolphins win 31-24 and cover the spread.
MORE: What Dolphins' upset win over Bills means for AFC East picture
Panthers at Falcons (-3.5, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers and Falcons have proved to be two of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. The defenses are either stringy or spring key leaks. The offenses have potential, and sometimes can be effective running to help their QBs, sometimes not. Flip a coin a few times after the Panthers won a shutout in the first meeting in Carolina.
Pick: Falcons win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Buccaneers at Bills (-5.5, 49.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Buccaneers can still stop the run well despite the anomalous breakdowns vs. the Patriots. They will focus on containing James Cook and feel good about the matchups with Josh Allen's wide receivers, playing coverage. Baker Mayfield will get more support from the running game and has the speed skill around him to make this interesting in a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Bills win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Why Bills' loss to Dolphins proves Josh Allen isn't team's 2025 MVP
Texans (-7, 38.5 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Texans got an unexpected spark from Davis Mills in the fourth quarter to save their season. Whether it is him or C.J. Stroud here, they can rely more on their key playmakers, led by Nico Collins to move the ball well enough to grind away victory on a post-bye division foe with nothing to lose. This is yet another rough defensive matchup for Cam Ward.
Pick: Texans win 20-14 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: How Texans' stunning comeback vs. Jaguars shakes up AFC South picture
Bears at Vikings (-3, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bears have won two in a row to get back into playoff position in the NFC with Caleb Williams starting to steady his play in Ben Johnson's offense. J.J. McCarhty doesn't have the same benefit of full Year 2 work and it's showing with his inconsistency in Kevin O'Connell' s offense. Williams is in a groove deploying his many weapons better than McCarthy is.
Pick: Bears win 27-24.
Bengals at Steelers (-5.5, 50 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bengals went nuts with Joe Flacco in stealing the first matchup with the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense found some answers vs. the Colts, only to lose them all against the Chargers, who ran the ball and made big pass plays in key moments. Aaron Rodgers redeems himself at home in the rematch, but it isn't easy vs. fighting Flacco.
Pick: Steelers win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Chargers' defense stifles Aaron Rodgers, Steelers on 'Sunday Night Football'
Chargers (-2.5, 44.5 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Justin Herbert is getting more needed help from the running game and defense again and he's playing a lot better with more healthy key weapons than Trevor Lawrence. Jim Harbaugh has a tough team when traveling across the country. The Jaguars will remain a little shell-shocked from what happened late in Houston, leading to a bad hangover here.
Pick: Chargers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
49ers (-3, 48.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
Will Brock Purdy return for his hometown game in Arizona? The 49ers are being careful until he practices in full, and besides, offense around Mac Jones isn't the problem with George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Christian McCaffrey providing plenty of support. The injury-riddled defense gets a needed break vs. the Cardinals' backup-laden group.
Pick: 49ers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Ravens (-8.5, 41.5 o/u) at Browns
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens are back to feeling it with Lamar Jackson and his weapons and they need to keep clicking with Derrick Henry, likely to be contained by a tougher Browns run defense at home. Baltimore's defense has gotten much better vs. the pass of late and it will be just fine vs. Dillon Gabriel.
Pick: Ravens win 24-13 and cover the spread.
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture heading into Week 11
Chiefs (-4, 44.5 o/u) at Broncos
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Andy Reid has had a bye week to prepare for this critical trip to face the shaky first-place team, Denver and its limited offense. He will work on designing the right game plan around Patrick Mahomes, who owns the Broncos. Bo Nix isn't playing well enough of late to outduel the MVP.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Cowboys (-1.5) at Raiders
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC
The Cowboys are returning from a bye with Dak Prescott and the rest of the team having heavy hearts and trying to make the best wild-card run they can by just getting some decent defense, which also has a reason to play inspired for their lost friend Marshawn Kneeland on the road.
Pick: Cowboys win 31-20 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 10 record straight up: 6-7
- Week 10 record against the spread: 5-8
- 2025 season record straight up: 95-51
- 2025 season record against the spread: 71-75
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