NFL Draft scenarios 2025: How Raiders or Giants can take control of No. 1 pick in Week 17

The eyes of the football world will largely be on postseason races during the penultimate weekend of NFL action.

But further down the standings, where tumbleweeds roll and buzzards circle, another matchup is set to captivate viewers — for all the wrong reasons.

The Raiders and Giants have endured equally challenging seasons, with Las Vegas plagued by inconsistent play and New York’s hopes faltering amid a string of injuries to key players.

It’s been a race to the bottom for both teams. Each is in prime position to claim the title of the league’s worst — a dubious honor that comes with a crown: the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Ahead of their Week 17 matchup, here’s a look at how both teams could position themselves for that coveted top pick.

MORE 2025 NFL DRAFT:

• Ohio State steals show in first round of 2026 NFL mock draft
• Ranking 10 best NFL Draft prospects in 2025 College Football Playoff

Who will get No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL Draft?

How Raiders can clinch No. 1 pick

The Raiders need two losses and a Giants win to land the No. 1 overall pick. The two sides enter the weekend level with matching 2-13 records. However, Las Vegas "holds" the tiebreaker, having achieved its record against a stronger strength of schedule.

New York takes on the Cowboys in Week 18 in a dead-rubber match. Dallas' postseason hopes already fell to ashes, although the Cowboys figure to enter the matchup as overwhelming favorites.

The Raiders, meanwhile, will take on a Chiefs side that recently fell to the lowly Titans, 29-6. Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew are out for the rest of the season, meaning Chris Oladokun will take the reins of Kansas City's attack to end the year. That's not a good thing for Las Vegas' draft hopes: it's hard to imagine the newly-minted starter having much success against the likes of Maxx Crosby/

That makes the Raiders and Giants' Week 17 joust with one another of even more importance. While bragging rights are nice, the prospect of landing the No. 1 overall pick is surely an attractive one for each side's front office. If Las Vegas were to drop its matchup with New York, it would surge into the top slot for this year's draft, losing the tiebreaker to Big Blue and ensuring it has the full board at its disposal come next April.

MORE: Meet Jackson Dart's fitness instructor mom and the rest of his famiy

How Giants can clinch No. 1 pick

The Giants' path to a No. 1 selection is a simple one. If they keep losing, they'll take home the No. 1 pick.

New York controls its own destiny courtesy of a weaker strength of schedule than the Raiders. The only way Las Vegas could leapfrog the Giants is by losing to them in Week 17.

That's no impossibility. Both New York and the Raiders have dropped their last nine games and look ready for their seasons to end.

Depending on the nature of Sunday's result, the Giants could drop a fair bit. Las Vegas, the Jets, the Titans and the Cardinals all tout significantly better strength of schedules than New York. If the Giants do beat Las Vegas and other results favor Tennessee, Arizona and the Jets' torpidity, New York could tumble as far as No. 5 in the draft rankings.

Suffice to say, Sunday's contest will go a long way in determining how the draft will shake out.

MORE: Exploring the recovery timeline for Giants star Cam Skattebo

NFL Draft order 2026

Here's a look at the projected 2026 NFL Draft order heading into Week 17.