NFC North standings: How Packers-Bears Saturday game impacts division race, playoff picture

For the second time in three weeks, the Packers and Bears will play a game that will help determine who wins the NFC North at the end of the 2025 NFL regular season.  Green Bay won the first matchup, 28-21, in Week 14 and Lambeau Field. In Week 16, the action shifts to Chicago's Soldier Field for a special Saturday night game (8:20 p.m. ET, Fox).

With only three weeks left to play, the division title is coming down to the wire to figure out whether the Packers or Bears will host a playoff game as North champions and which of the two teams will need to go on the road as a wild-card team.

Here's breaking down the implications of the quick rematch:

MORE WEEK 16 NFL:

• NFL power rankings for Week 16
• NFL Week 16 picks, predictions
• NFL Week 16 picks against the spread

NFC North current standings

1. Chicago Bears (10-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
3. Detroit Lions (8-6)
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)

The Bears lead the division by a half-game over the Packers because of the latter having a tie on its record. The Bears are the current No. 2 seed behind the No. 1 Rams (11-3), while the Packers are the No.7 seed and final NFC wild-card team behind the No. 6 49ers (10-4). 

The Lions are two games behind the Bears and 1.5 games behind the Packers going into Week 16. The Vikings were eliminated from any kind of NFC playoff contention in Week 15.

NFC playoff picture: Packers-Bears impact

If the Packers win ... 

The Packers would improve to 10-4-1 and the Bears would fall to 10-5, giving the Packers a lead again by a half-game and the head-to-head tiebreaker from the season series sweep. That would jump the Packers to the No. 2 seed behind the Seahawks (12-3) in Week 16. The Eagles, at 9-5, will stay No. 3 regardless of their Saturday outcome vs. the Commanders. 

If the Bears lose, they would fall all the way back down to No. 7, behind the Rams (11-4) and the 49ers, who either will be 11-4 or 10-5 after their Monday night game at the Colts to close Week 16. If both the Bears and 49ers are 10-5, the 49ers would have the tiebreaker based on conference record (8-2 vs. 6-4). The Bears play the 49ers in San Francisco on Sunday night in Week 17.

If the Bears win ... 

The Bears would improve to 11-4 and the Packers would fall to 9-5-1. The Bears would then earn the season series split and lead the division by 1.5 games over the Packers with only two games left. The Bears would remain as the No. 2 seed behind the Seahawks.

If the Packers lose, they would stay at their current No. 7, the third and final NFC wild-card, staying behind the second- and third-place teams from the NFC West. They still would be ahead of the Lions by a game and a head-to-head tiebreaker ahead of the Lions hosting the Steelers on Sunday.

The Bears would be in a strong position to win the division with a win over the Packers. But they also need to face the 49ers on the road and the Lions (who beat them 52-21 in Detroit in Week 2) at home to close the season. The Packers go to the Ravens in Week 17 before hosting the Vikings in Week 18.

Regardless of what happens on Saturday, Green Bay vs. Chicago for the NFC North title is still about to come down to the wire.