New Iran Deal Distant Prospect as US Talks Drag, Airstrikes Loom

US President Donald Trump walks on the South Lawn of the White House after arriving on Marine One in Washington, DC, US, early on Monday, Feb. 9, 2026. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Washington on Wednesday to discuss US-Iran diplomacy with President Donald Trump, whose focus on Tehran's nuclear program falls short of his ally's call for more sweeping measures. Photographer: Bonnie Cash/UPI/Bloomberg Photo by Bonnie Cash /Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The US and Iran each struck a positive tone about the start of diplomatic talks, though analysts remain skeptical that the engagement will be enough to head off US airstrikes.

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The timeline and terms of the negotiations remain unclear after an opening round of talks on Friday that President Donald Trump cast as “very good” and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hailed as a “step forward.” But developments since those discussions started only underscore the persistent tension between the two sides.

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Over the weekend, Iran continued its crackdown on dissidents, risking Trump’s ire after he held back on strikes due to Iranian assurances that it would halt protester executions. On Monday, the US warned American vessels to steer clear of Iranian waters, spooking oil markets and renewing the prospect of conflict.

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Analysts see almost no chance of a serious deal given that Iran wants to limit negotiations to its nuclear program. The US, meanwhile, has previously demanded that Iran give up its ballistic-missile program, stop supporting military groups and end a crackdown on protesters. 

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to push Trump to demand more Iranian concessions in a White House meeting on Wednesday.

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“Talks will ultimately break down, and so we probably will still see strikes at some point,” said Bloomberg Economics analyst Dina Esfandiary. “The key question is how long talks go before breaking down, and how long Trump’s patience endures.”  

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Also complicating the talks is the balancing act that Trump has to strike with his repeated and public threats of airstrikes on Iran and his boasts that a US “armada” is assembling in the Middle East. 

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His administration is also emboldened after a successful special operations raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January. Trump has said on social media that “like with Venezuela,” the US Navy is “ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.”

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With the markets weighing the chances of US airstrikes against a TACO — an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out” — a Bloomberg Economics analysis found Trump has been more likely to follow through on threats in his second term.

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The US also has shifted its position multiple times. Trump originally wanted to protect Iranian protesters and later decided on a deal to constrain Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. 

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“For talks to actually lead to something meaningful, they will have to include certain things,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week, just before the talks began. “And that includes the range of their ballistic missiles. That includes their sponsorship of terrorist organizations across the region. That includes the nuclear program, and that includes the treatment of their own people.”