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Canada’s first-ever Grocery Code of Conduct took effect on Jan. 1, but most grocery insiders don’t think there will be any notable impact from it, according to a survey by CIBC Capital Markets.
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The code of conduct was created to improve the relationship between companies that supply food and other products and the retailers that sell them.
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In December, after years of discussions and delays, the voluntary industry agreement was finally signed by all five major grocery retailers in Canada, including Loblaw Cos. Ltd., Empire Co. Ltd., Metro Inc., Costco Wholesale Canada Ltd. and Wal-Mart Canada Corp., as well as several large suppliers.
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According to CIBC’s research, which surveyed a group of nearly 100 Canadian grocery insiders, over 81 per cent of respondents said “no” to whether there will be any notable impact from the code — the survey question that elicited the most decisive majority. The respondents included retailers, wholesalers, suppliers, brokers and other industry participants.
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“Our sense from the supplier community has always been that a code of conduct would not materially change the balance of power in food retailing, so we were not surprised to see a lopsided response,” CIBC analysts Mark Petrie and Chantel Pearce wrote in the report, saying that the first comprehensive Grocery Code of Conduct brings Canada into uncharted territory this year.
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The report noted some common themes were raised in the survey, including that it’s too early to see any results and that the code is more performative and lacks mechanics for enforcement. Those who responded “yes” primarily highlighted improved partnerships across the industry, particularly between retailers and suppliers.
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The analysts said that while they do not expect the code will have a notable impact on how the industry operates in the near term, they “do expect change as a result of the code,” largely in cleaning up some of the grey-area dealings and potentially promoting supply-chain efficiencies and product innovation.
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They also said that the survey responses affirm that while 2026 presents unique challenges and dynamics, the grocery industry is well equipped to navigate the uncertainty.
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For one, the industry expects focus to remain on value amid a challenging economic backdrop.
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And 70 per cent of those surveyed expect food inflation to hold in the three to four per cent range, buoyed by ongoing commodity pressure and overall cost inflation.
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It also highlighted how macro uncertainty is weighing on consumers. “Trade-down” and value-seeking behaviour is expected to continue, while only three per cent of respondents expect this to reverse in 2026. The balance were nearly evenly split on the trend gaining or holding.
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In addition, respondents expect grocery industry square-footage growth to accelerate this year, even as population growth continues to slow. A narrow majority view this as manageable after several years of population growth exceeding square-footage growth.
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The report said 48 per cent believe this will lead to increased competitive activity as retailers look to support the ramp-up of new stores.
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