NC State vs. Memphis prediction: Gasparilla Bowl odds, picks, and best bet

A few weeks ago, it looked like Memphis was on its way to the College Football Playoff. The Tigers had just defeated USF to get to 7-1 on the season, and the rest of their schedule was set up for them to get into the AAC Championship, where a win would surely send them to the big dance.

That isn’t how it played out.

Rumors started to swirl down the stretch that head coach Ryan Silverfield had his head turned by Arkansas, and the team crumbled. The Tigers lost their last three games, and were resigned to a date against NC State in the Gasparilla Bowl while Tulane takes on Ole Miss in the Playoff.

Oh, and Silverfield took the Arkansas gig.

NC State vs. Memphis odds, prediction

There could be some last-minute roster maneuvers for this one, especially on the Memphis side, but it does seem like both of these rosters will be close to full strength.

If that is the case, this line seems a bit ridiculous. Perhaps the betting market knows something about the Memphis roster that casual punters don’t, but even so, the Tigers shouldn’t have too many issues with NC State’s defense on Friday.

NC State quarterback CJ Bailey. Getty Images

This is a stylistic nightmare for the Wolfpack, who finished 6-6 despite having one of the worst defenses in the country. The Wolfpack ranked 126th in yards per play, 113th in yards allowed per pass, and 100th in points allowed per game.

The Wolfpack were able to barely survive its defensive ineptitude thanks to a strong passing game led by quarterback CJ Bailey, but that won’t be an easy thing to do against Memphis, which put up some of the best offensive metrics in the Group of 5 this season.

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The Tigers can answer Bailey with a terrific quarterback of their own. Brendon Lewis is an experienced signal-caller who can beat you in a number of ways, and he’s got a terrific running game to lean on to keep defenses on their heels.

Lewis and the Tigers should be able to put up some crooked numbers against this defense, putting pressure on Bailey to match them play for play. That’s not a recipe for success for a betting favorite.

The wrong team is favored in this contest.

The Play: Memphis moneyline (+165, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.