The start of the season is finally here, and with it comes my opening day power rankings for all 30 teams in the league. This season will be one of the more fun ones in recent memory, with the league championship totally up for grabs. We've had a new winner in each of the last eight years and 12 different NBA Finals teams since 2020. The Knicks are a great team, but a repeat championship is far from a guarantee.
The Spurs and Thunder are the obvious candidates to usurp them out of the West. If both falter, then there are several quality teams at their heels. The East is looking even tougher, with seven teams that wouldn't shock me if they made it to the Finals.
Here's how I see the league shaking out, along with predicted records for each team.
RANKING ALL 150 NBA STARTERS: 11-150 | Top 10
NBA Power Rankings
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season: 64-18, No. 1 in the West
Projected record: 64-18
The Thunder did lose some key rotation players from last year's 64-win team in Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins. They still maintained the rest of their core, including two-time reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They've been a historic defense over the past two seasons, and that isn't changing. And Jalen Williams should be much healthier this season, re-establishing himself as an All-Star.
Oklahoma City has an embarrassment of riches on its roster to bolster its top-end talent in SGA, Williams, and Chet Holmgren. Cason Wallace is a capable fill-in for Dort in the starting lineup. Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain are ready for more minutes off the bench. Bennett Stirtz and Aday Mara have looked great in preseason. That depth makes them an easy pick for best record in the league.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Last season: 62-20, No. 2 in the West
Projected record: 61-21
The Spurs' young core is only getting better from their Finals run. Although he's currently slated to come off the bench, Dylan Harper already appears ready to be a strong No. 2 next to Victor Wembanyama, who should be the favorite to win MVP if he stays healthy. Tobias Harris upgrades a scary starting lineup. And veteran Billy Donovan should provide a steadying hand as an assistant coach in some of the rough moments that San Antonio experienced in the most high-leverage moments last year.
3. Boston Celtics
Last season: 56-26, No. 2 in the East
Projected record: 54-28
The Celtics shocked the world by trading Jaylen Brown during the offseason. They shouldn't experience much of a decline. Jayson Tatum's return should fill the void left by Brown. Paul George is a perfect fit in Joe Mazzulla's system, where he can capably switch on defense and shoot a high percentage from 3 on offense. Mitchell Robinson might be the most underrated addition of the offseason, both weakening the Knicks and adding to an already-elite offensive rebounding team.
MORE: What's next for the Celtics? Evaluating Boston with Paul George
4. New York Knicks
Last season: 53-29, No. 3 in the East
Projected record: 54-28
It might seem disrespectful to have the defending champs this low, but they weren't a great regular season team last season. They don't have the depth of the teams above them, and the drop-off between Robinson and his replacement Andre Drummond is huge.
The Knicks will still be a powerhouse and should be considered the favorite to come out of the East in the playoffs. Jalen Brunson shows up for the biggest moments, and their top-end talent is on par with anyone.
5. Houston Rockets
Last season: 52-30, No. 5 in the West
Projected record: 54-28
The Rockets are my pick to be among the biggest overachievers in the league. They've won 52 games in each of the past two seasons, and they've added some talent that should make them even better.
Marcus Smart had a comeback season last year for the Lakers. He fits the team's tenacious defensive identity perfectly. Fred VanVleet's return from injury addresses the biggest weak point as far as a steady hand to guide the team late in games. Steven Adams' return should allow Houston to continue pummeling teams on the glass.
Houston probably won't get quite the same level of production from Kevin Durant, who had a remarkably healthy season in which he played in 78 games and was among the league leaders in minutes. But they have better balance and more depth to lean on.
NBA PROJECTED WIN TOTALS: Eastern Conference | Western Conference
6. Toronto Raptors
Last season: 46-36, No. 5 in the East
Projected record: 53-29
The Raptors are my other pick for overachiever. They were already a solid team last season that looked feisty in the playoffs. Scottie Barnes has arrived as an All-NBA talent, despite getting snubbed for that award last season. And Kawhi Leonard was a top-five player in the league last year. He replaces a good-not-great player in Brandon Ingram.
That Barnes-Leonard duo will be among the best in the league. What will carry the Raptors though is their defense. They should be in contention with the Spurs for the No. 2 defense in the league after finishing No. 5 last season.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
Last season: 52-30, No. 4 in the East
Projected record: 50-32
I'm going against consensus by having the Cavs this high. They didn't look particularly impressive in the playoffs despite making it to the Eastern Conference Finals. But this is a team that has a ton of talent and a history of winning in the regular season.
Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen have led the Cavs to 52 and 64 wins over the past two seasons. For all of the criticism that James Harden gets, he's been a reliable workhorse during the regular season. And newcomer Peyton Watson shores up the team's biggest long-term need as an athletic wing who can both play defense and shoot from 3.
The Cavs don't have the best depth, but Sam Merrill and Jaylon Tyson are both reliable bench players. I'm a Craig Porter Jr. believer too. That is enough in the regular season to complement a terrific starting five.
8. Detroit Pistons
Last season: 60-22, No. 1 in the East
Projected record: 49-33
The Pistons cruised to a top seed in the East last season, but a regression is probably on the horizon. Cade Cunningham will keep the floor very high. But Jalen Duren, who was excellent during last year's regular season, is more of a question mark. His playoff collapse, along with messy public contract negotiations, generates some worry about his upcoming season.
There are some other cracks showing deeper in the team's rotation. Tobias Harris, Isaiah Stewart, and Caris LeVert are all gone. The team did address its shooting woes by adding Isaiah Joe, and a full season of Kevin Huerter will help. But this looks like a worse roster than the one from last year. While Detroit will always bring great defense and play with an edge, the offensive pieces still look like an awkward fit.
Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
9. Denver Nuggets
Last season: 54-28, No. 3 in the West
Projected record: 49-33
Nikola Jokic is still the best offensive player in the game. He didn't have his best year by his standards last year though, as he fought his way through some injury issues. His defense slipped as well, dropping him to No. 3 in my player rankings.
The Nuggets will be a good team even if Jokic is beginning to decline. Even at 90 percent of his peak, he will give them a decent shot at a championship over the next few seasons. But the road to get there is tougher this year than last.
DeMar DeRozan was a nice pickup and should bolster the league's worst bench. Cameron Johnson looked like he was figuring things out at the end of last season. Denver still needs one or two more pieces though, particularly given Aaron Gordon's struggles in staying healthy and the loss of Watson.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
Last season: 49-33, No. 6 in the West
Projected record: 49-33
The Wolves added high-end talent in LaMelo Ball. Anthony Edwards and Ball should create an absolutely electric offense that is fast, bombs 3's, and makes flashy plays. Rudy Gobert is still an elite rim protector that can anchor the team to a top-10 defense. And a full year of Ayo Dosunmu should help as Donte DiVincenzo recovers from his torn Achilles.
Power forward depth is a question mark that keeps the Wolves out of the top tier of teams. Jonathan Kuminga is the presumptive starter there. He will have to improve his all-around game rather than being just a scorer.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
Last season: 53-29, No. 4 in the West
Projected record: 49-33
The Lakers lost LeBron James, but they added personnel that fits better around Luka Doncic. That should have them fighting as a home court advantage team in the West. They added some shooting in Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, and Sandro Mamukelashvili. That group, along with more production from Austin Reaves, should have Los Angeles as a top 10 offense. But the team's main concerns were on defense, where Walker Kessler is expected to clean up a ton of mistakes.
That is a big bet on Kessler, who has struggled to stay healthy. Marcus Smart was also critical to keeping the Lakers' defense respectable last season. The team will need to find some way to replace his perimeter defense. One of Matisse Thybulle, Bronny James, or Jarred Vanderbilt will need to step into that Smart role.
12. Philadelphia 76ers
Last season: 45-37, No. 7 in the East
Projected record: 46-36
The Sixers have the star talent that is going to make them exciting to watch. Joel Embiid looks like he's in the best shape of his life, Tyrese Maxey is one of the league's brightest young stars, and everyone knows what LeBron James and Jaylen Brown can do. Concerns about the team's offense are overblown. They're going to be fantastic on that end of the floor, with LeBron connecting all of the pieces.
Defense is another story. Embiid is still not able to move particularly well even after his weight loss. The team's depth behind him is poor and looking even worse after Ariel Hukporti's Achilles tear during the preseason. VJ Edgecombe will have to be the lockdown perimeter defender on the team, and Brown will need to be more engaged off the ball than what he showed last year with the Celtics.
Those defensive concerns and lack of depth should lead the Sixers to a modest regular season record. They'll be much more dangerous in the playoffs, when rotations get shortened.
MORE: Give the Sixers a 'B' on the Paul George-Jaylen Brown trade
13. Miami Heat
Last season: 43-39, No. 10 in the East
Projected record: 46-36
The Heat have an elite defensive foundation between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Concerns about their lack of 3-point shooting seem overblown given the additions of Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr., along with Davion Mitchell's progression as a shooter.
That makes them another team that has an extra gear to go to in the playoffs, but their lack of depth should prevent them from reaching the top of the regular season standings. This is a weak bench, and Giannis' health is also a question mark at this stage in his career.
MORE: Grading the Giannis Antetokounmpo Bucks-Heat blockbuster
14. Indiana Pacers
Last season: 19-63, No. 14 in the East
Projected record: 43-39
The Pacers are only 16 months removed from Game 7 of the NBA Finals, but this is a different team than the one that ran roughshod over the East.
Tyrese Haliburton hasn't played a game of basketball since that date, and it's reasonable to expect that he will need some time before he reaches that top-10 level of player that he was in those 2025 playoffs. He will also need to adjust to a new big man in Ivica Zubac who is expected to play a different, more aggressive defensive scheme than the drop coverage that he thrived in with the Clippers.
Indiana may start slow, but they should finish fast. They have talent that always seems to ramp up as the season progresses, along with an elite coach in Rick Carlisle.
15. Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 46-36, No. 6 in the East
Projected record: 43-39
The Hawks have the assets to make a major move for a star player. Until that guy becomes available, they're taking a patient approach. They have an extremely well-balanced roster and six capable starters between Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, and Lu Dort. They have strong coaching and good veterans that know how to play off each other.
That group will keep them as a good-not-great team in the East until they make a move for a top-10 star. Johnson doesn't look quite ready to break into that tier of player, and the Hawks will need that superstar if they want to rise to the top of the conference.
NBA BOLD PREDICTIONS: Eastern Conference | Western Conference
16. Orlando Magic
Last season: 45-37, No. 8 in the East
Projected record: 41-41
The Magic changed their coach, but they still have most of the same problems from last season. This offense is shaky until proven otherwise, with a lack of shooting, below-average playmaking from guards, and a weird fit between Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
Orlando's defense should still be very good. But Sean Sweeney will have to prove that he's a brilliant offensive tactician before the Magic dig themselves out of mediocrity.
Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images
17. Portland Trail Blazers
Last season: 42-40, No. 8 in the West
Projected record: 40-42
The Blazers made a bold move in trading for Ja Morant, whose fit is a bit odd next to Damian Lillard. Both are electric ballhandlers with glaring defensive deficiencies. Donovan Clingan is an elite rim protector, but he can only do so much. Morant joins a crowded backcourt that also includes Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson.
Lillard's return should help address the Blazers' biggest weakness last season, a lack of shooting around Deni Avdija. At age 36 though and coming off an Achilles injury, he isn't changing the team's fortunes dramatically from the plucky 42-win team that overachieved last year.
18. Golden State Warriors
Last season: 37-45, No. 10 in the West
Projected record: 40-42
Stephen Curry is still one of the premier stars in the league, but his minutes need to be monitored carefully at this stage of his career. Jimmy Butler won't be back until the end of the season, and there's no star who can carry the team when Curry misses games here and there. Kristaps Porzingis' availability for the year is already in question. And Draymond Green's offensive abilities have been falling off a cliff.
The all-around concerns from the Warriors' high-end talent has them looking like a Play-In Tournament team. There are some brighter spots on the bench though. They have one of the league's sleepers in Gui Santos, who was very solid as a starter last season. Yaxel Lendeborg will be one of the most productive rookies. And familiar faces like Gary Payton II, De'Anthony Melton, and Al Horford can be counted on for solid minutes.
19. Phoenix Suns
Last season: 45-37, No. 7 in the West
Projected record: 38-44
The Suns made a win-now move by trading for Miles Bridges, whose offensive skill should make them a more dangerous team. Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks form a good scoring duo in the backcourt.
I'm not as sold on Jalen Green, who is a presumptive starter but should probably be coming off the bench for Collin Gillespie. Another reason for regression is Mark Williams' labrum injury before the start of preseason. Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach are capable backups, but neither profile as a quality starter.
20. Charlotte Hornets
Last season: 44-38, No. 9 in the East
Projected record: 36-46
The Hornets should take a clear step back after trading away LaMelo Ball. They still have a ton of 3-point shooting, particularly after adding Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, and Christian Anderson. But the team's ability to generate clean looks has gone down.
Coby White has filled in as a point guard before during his time with the Bulls. He's a capable distributor and good scorer, but he's no Ball. Brandon Miller can create too, but he needs to add strength and become a more efficient finisher. Kon Knueppel can also take some playmaking duties on. All three will need to fill larger roles for the Hornets to maintain their momentum from last season, and Charlotte will start on a tough note as White and Knueppel recover from a calf and hamstring strain.
21. Memphis Grizzlies
Last season: 25-57, No. 13 in the East
Projected record: 35-47
The Grizzlies are a strong contender to overachieve their modest preseason expectations. While they don't have any clear All-Stars on their roster, they do have tremendous depth and role players with a proven track record of success.
Cameron Boozer looks like the rookie that is most ready to contribute. Zach Edey's ankle surgery should have him ready for a Most Improved Player campaign. Ty Jerome was excellent in the few games that he was able to suit up in last season. Jerami Grant brings a good offensive skillset. The list of productive players goes on and on.
22. Utah Jazz
Last season: 22-60, No. 15 in the West
Projected record: 31-51
I'm much lower on the Jazz than consensus. Their wins have been suppressed over the past several seasons, and they will get better this year. But they still have some concerning holes on their roster.
Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. are a good duo, but neither is particularly suited to playing full-time center. Jusuf Nurkic is a well below-average starter who is already starting the year off with a foot injury. And there isn't much behind Nurk in the rotation.
That lack of depth poses a real problem for the Jazz, who will be trying hard to win this season. They do have strong coaching and good offensive talent, particularly in last year's breakout star Keyonte George and rookie Darryn Peterson. But this was a very bad defensive team last year, and there's only so much that Jackson Jr. can do to shore up that side of the ball by himself.
23. Los Angeles Clippers
Last season: 42-40, No. 9 in the West
Projected record: 30-52
The Clippers have dealt with a nightmarish offseason that saw them lose a ton of draft picks and face constant distractions. And they have already faced significant injuries to both Max Strus and Brandon Ingram.
Despite those obstacles, Los Angeles should still be somewhat respectable. They have some decent veterans to hold down the fort, led by a rejuvenated Darius Garland. Rui Hachimura is a solid incoming starting piece, and there are some great defenders in Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. in the rotation as well. Add in stellar coaching and a lack of tanking incentive, and the Clippers should stay out of the very bottom of the standings.
NBA DRAFT: First-round grades | Ranking team performances
24. New Orleans Pelicans
Last season: 26-56, No. 11 in the West
Projected record: 30-52
The Pelicans do have some decent talent on their roster. Zion Williamson is possibly the most slept-on scorer in the league, still capable of wreaking havoc when going downhill. He doesn't have quite as much offensive responsibility as in recent years, and his fit is wonky next to Derik Queen, making him a potential trade candidate at some point in the season. Trey Murphy has All-Star potential as an athletic sharpshooter who can drop buckets in a hurry. Those two will keep the floor from falling out.
The Pelicans also have All-Defensive stud Herb Jones to wreak havoc on the defensive end. Jones' shooting looked shaky last year, and he will need a return to form in that area for the Pelicans to overachieve. As good as Jones is, it's hard to see New Orleans with a good team defense. Too many weak individual defenders along with poor center depth should keep them out of the playoff picture.
Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images
25. Dallas Mavericks
Last season: 26-56, No. 12 in the West
Projected record: 29-53
Kyrie Irving's return from ACL surgery should make the Mavs better. Their guard play was a weakness last year, and they desperately need his playmaking ability. How much they can count on the 34-year-old is a real question. And they don't have good depth behind him. The team's roster construction is way too forward-heavy, with very few quality guards.
That puts an oversized creation burden squarely on Cooper Flagg's shoulders for the second straight year. Flagg had a great rookie season but did looked overtaxed in consistently creating efficient offense for himself and others.
While Irving and Flagg are both excellent players, there isn't enough around them at this stage to get more than a modest improvement from last season's win total.
26. Washington Wizards
Last season: 17-65, No. 15 in the East
Projected record: 25-57
The Wizards do have a scenario where they can break into the playoff picture. Trae Young is a good floor raiser who remains one of the best passers in the game. Anthony Davis is a top-15 player when healthy. And AJ Dybantsa could win Rookie of the Year.
I'm not a believer in everything hitting right for Washington due to several reasons. Young's athleticism was waning in Atlanta before getting traded last year. His once-trusted floater and 3-pointer haven't quite looked right in a while. Davis' health is always a massive risk, and he's a trade candidate. Dybantsa is going to score, but his shot selection needs cleaning up. And Brian Keefe hasn't shown much since taking over the Wizards head coaching position in 2024.
Washington should see some good development from its young roster. Young will make life easier for everyone. But there are too many potential points of failure to expect a giant leap.
NBA POWER RANKINGS IN 2029: Which teams have the brightest future?
27. Chicago Bulls
Last season: 31-51, No. 12 in the East
Projected record: 25-57
The Bulls are no longer shying away from the word rebuild. They have taken a meaningful step back over the past year in order to build towards something more ambitious than the middle of the East.
There are some adults in the room that will keep Chicago respectable while they develop their youth. Norman Powell is a big time scorer that will have a permanent green light. Josh Giddey and Tre Jones are both quality passers that can get the team organized. Isaac Okoro is a quality defender. And the Bulls have two low-end starting-caliber centers in Nic Claxton and Jalen Smith. The depth on this team isn't bad.
Chicago will still struggle to win games despite that veteran group because Caleb Wilson's development will be the priority this year. While his athleticism will lead to some bright moments, he's not the type of NBA-ready prospect that can be leaned on for consistent play. Dailyn Swain similarly will need time to figure out his role in the NBA. And Matas Buzelis still needs to sharpen his all-around game to complement his dynamic scoring and terrific shot-blocking skills.
MORE: Best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2026-27 Bulls
28. Milwaukee Bucks
Last season: 32-50, No. 11 in the East
Projected record: 24-58
The Bucks were rough with half a season of Giannis last year, going 32-50. They were at their worst in games that he missed, going 15-31 in those contests.
They now face a future without their franchise centerpiece. Getting Tyler Herro in the Giannis trade will help staunch some of the bleeding, and Brayden Burries should add some playmaking as a polished one-and-done rookie. There isn't enough high-end talent to drive much winning though, and at least a handful of the team's veterans are likely to be gone mid-season.
This year is more about seeing what Burries, Nate Ament, and some of the team's prospects acquired via trade can do.
29. Brooklyn Nets
Last season: 20-62, No. 13 in the East
Projected record: 23-59
Julius Randle is a good floor raiser, Michael Porter Jr. is coming off a brilliant offensive season in which he improved both his passing and showed that he could scale up his scoring role, and Day'Ron Sharpe is the most underrated starting center in the league. Egor Demin and Nolan Traore showed nice potential in their rookie years.
The Nets still have a ton of young players though who aren't totally ready to contribute to winning. Rookie Mikel Brown will throw some creative passes and score in bunches, but he will need to play through plenty of mistakes too. They also need to figure out if any of Danny Wolf, Ben Saraf, or Drake Powell are part of their future.
30. Sacramento Kings
Last season: 22-60, No. 14 in the West
Projected record: 19-63
Darius Acuff should be the focal point of the Kings as they try to rebuild. Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine are still on this roster, but maybe not for long. The pieces on this roster clearly don't mesh well together, as LaVine said last season.
"You can have the most talented people in the world, but if the guitarist and the violin guy, and then somebody that is orchestrating, and somebody on the saxophone, if they are all not playing in the same key, it ain't going to sound like music. It is going to sound like a bunch of instruments playing," LaVine stated bluntly about the team's chemistry.
There are some bright spots that could be part of the next great Kings team alongside Acuff. Dylan Cardwell looks like a quality NBA defender. Maxime Raynaud's offensive game is fun to watch. Maybe Ben Simmons has some gas left in the tank. But in the immediate future, the Kings are going to lose a lot of games.
