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Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic.
AP
The basketball gods can be cruel sometimes, and their callousness was on full display Monday night. Nikola Jokic suffered a knee injury at the end of the first half of the Nuggets-Heat game that looked serious the moment it happened.
According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Jokic hyperextended his left knee and will miss at least one month, which is good news considering the alternatives. However, the injury has completely upended the NBA Most Valuable Player race.
Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the two players with the best shot at winning the award. Jokic is a yearly staple on voters’ lists because of the mind-boggling numbers he puts up that somehow keep getting better every season. Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, is by far the best guard in the NBA and the best player on the best team we’ve seen since the Warriors during their run in the 2010s.
Jokic was close to overtaking Gilgeous-Alexander as the favorite before the injury, but now Jokic is off the board at every sportsbook, and Gilgeous-Alexander is a -450 favorite to win. Bettors may be tempted to find value elsewhere, but they should be cautious.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder. GettyIf Jokic misses only four weeks, as Charania reported, he would be out for 16 of the Nuggets’ games, which means he could only miss one more game for the rest of the season and maintain eligibility under the 65 games played rule.
There really isn’t anyone with a strong enough case to compete with Gilgeous-Alexander right now.
Luka Doncic (+375) and the Lakers have a good record, but just had a team meeting because their coach doesn’t think anyone is trying hard enough.
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Cade Cunningham (40/1) has an interesting case with the Pistons leading the Eastern Conference entering the new year. He’s averaging career highs in points (26.5), rebounds (6.3), and assists (9.6), and the latter game ranks second in the NBA. As good as he’s been, he’s still a level or two below SGA, and the Pistons would have to finish first in the East for him to truly have a strong case.
Victor Wembanyama (50/1) has burst onto the scene this season, and his Spurs are undefeated against the Thunder this season. His case to be MVP was made in the NBA Cup semi-final when he helped the Spurs snap the Thunder’s 15-game win streak.
Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs plays defense on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder. NBAE via Getty ImagesIn his first game back on the floor, Wembanyama was a plus-21 in 21 minutes off the bench and stifled the Thunder as soon as he subbed in. His issue, like Jokic’s, will be games played. He already missed 12 games with injury and could run up against the 65-game threshold as the season wears on.
Jalen Brunson (66/1) is getting a lot of push from coach Mike Brown to win MVP, but he would need to maintain the massive numbers he’s been putting up over the past 10 games — 32.2 points per game on 49.2 percent from the floor and 42.7 percent from deep. In that scenario, if the Knicks keep winning, his case would be just as good as any of the other players mentioned, but I don’t think it’s strong enough.
Right now, there’s no value in the MVP market, but just as quickly as things changed on Monday night, things could shift again in the near future.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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