NBA Finals prediction: Why this Jalen Brunson scoring prop has value

Jalen Brunson and the Knicks have answered every question presented to them during their playoff run. Now comes the literal big boss.

The Knicks carry their 11-game win streak into San Antonio to face Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. The question facing the Knicks captain now is whether he can continue to be the leading scorer in this series as he has been for the past three rounds.

Sportsbooks list Wembanyama as the odds-on favorite to lead the NBA Finals in total points scored at -175 odds, with Brunson trailing as the second choice at +155 odds.

That may not seem strange on the surface, considering what Wembanyama did in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, but he’s averaging 23.2 points per game in the playoffs, while Brunson is scoring 26.9 per game.

Jalen Brunson #11 and Mikal Bridges #25 of the New York Knicks. Getty Images

Across their three matchups, including the NBA Cup championship game, Brunson scored four more points than the Spurs’ big man. Wembanyama outscored Brunson in two of those games, once by two points and once by one point, while Brunson outscored Wembanyama by seven in the Cup final.

The difference here isn’t significant enough to warrant giving either player a better than 50 percent chance of being the leading scorer, which means there is value on Brunson as the underdog.

Against the Thunder, the Spurs were able to hound Shai Gilgeous-Alexander because he always had the ball, and their best alternative options for shot creation — Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell — were hurt for most of the series.

I expect this series to be different. Brunson doesn’t need to be on the ball constantly to be effective, and when he’s moving around off the ball, it tends to create open shots for him instead of the contested ones that are much tougher to hit consistently.

The Knicks have shown during this run that they can diversify their offense depending on the opponent, and Brunson’s scoring can essentially remain the same. Brunson scored 26.3 points on 47.8 percent shooting against the Hawks, 29 points on 51.3 percent shooting against the 76ers, and 25.5 points on 48.7 percent shooting against the Cavaliers.

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Wembanyama’s scoring fluctuated during the Western Conference Finals, and it’s clear that he hasn’t fully figured out how to maintain the dominance he showed in Game 1. (Few players in NBA history outside of Shaquille O’Neal and Wilt Chamberlain have.)

Assuming Mitchell Robinson is available for the series, the Knicks have three good options (Robinson, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns) to force Wembanyama into jump shots instead of getting right to the rim for lobs and dunks.

At plus money, I’m more than happy to bet on Brunson to be the leading scorer in this series.

The Pick: Jalen Brunson series top points scorer (+155, FanDuel)

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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.