Most overpaid players of NFL free agency: Alec Pierce, Malik Willis lead list of risky contracts in 2026

Top available players getting massive paydays, typically above their actual value, is simply part of the NFL free agency cycle. 

When a star-level player hits the open market, or even just a good, capable starter, teams with cap space are willing to fork over millions of dollars — because elite NFL contributors rarely wind up hitting unrestricted free agency in their primes, teams reset the positional markets by giving out inflated deals to assure they land a good player.

Given the fact that the NFL salary cap continues to balloon, now over $300 million in the 2026 league year, players are bound to continue getting "overpaid" above their value in free agency. This year's cycle was no exception — some great, but not elite players, agreed to larger contracts that either don't align with their historic value, were inflated to prevent other teams from acquiring that player, or are entirely based on future projections. 

Here are eight of the most overpaid players in 2026 NFL free agency, all deals that have the potential to hurt each team in the long-run.

MORE NFL FREE AGENCY: Live tracker | Team-by-team grades | Best players available

Most overpaid players of NFL free agency 2026

Alec Pierce, Colts

• Years: 4
• Amount: $114 million

As will be the case with all the players on this list: Alec Pierce is a very good NFL player at his position, as he proved in a breakout 2025 season. On just 47 catches, he topped 1,000 receiving yards for the first time and emerged as one of the best deep threats in the league.

The Colts were known to be interested in bringing back both Pierce and quarterback Daniel Jones, which they accomplished — but at a massive combined price for two players who don't scream "proven." 

Pierce, who was the top receiver to hit the open market this year, became the highest-paid free agent at his position in NFL history with Indianapolis' four-year, $114 million extension. Undoubtedly, a few things played a role in Pierce becoming the 11th-highest-paid receiver by AAV ($28.5 million), per Over the Cap.

For one, somebody was bound to overpay Pierce in order to keep him from signing elsewhere. The New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and more lurked as threats to pursue a top receiver this offseason, and had the Colts not boosted their offer, Pierce might have left town.

Additionally, Indianapolis was somewhat paying for what it thinks Pierce is now capable of — being a true No. 1 receiver. Immediately after the news of the extension, the Colts traded longtime receiver Michael Pittman Jr. to the Pittsburgh Steelers to free up some money.

So, this is a move that didn't just cost the Colts $114 million, with $84 million guaranteed, for a receiver with one 1,000-yard season and no official NFL accolades; it also forced them to move Pittman, one of their most reliable weapons over the last few years.

Pierce will have to take another leap to live up to his new contract. Being given a similar AAV to Tee Higgins ($28.75 million) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($30 million) means Pierce has much, much higher expectations for 2026.

MORE: Who are the highest-paid wide receivers in 2026?

Jaelan Phillips, Panthers

• Years: 4 
• Amount: $120 million

Former Miami Dolphins defender Jaelan Phillips, who was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles at last season's trade deadline, was another player who had earned a bidding war of sorts in 2026 free agency. Phillips was bound to command a significant deal as a 26-year-old pass rusher with 28 career sacks and a reputation for reliable, consistent production.

The Eagles were considered favorites to bring Phillips back after he improved their defense last season, but they got priced out by the Carolina Panthers. As the Panthers look to improve on their near-playoff-bid in 2025, they laid some cash out for the market's top pass rusher — $120 million over four years, to be precise.

An AAV of $30 million is a steep price for Phillips, who has always been solid, but never quite elite. After all, his career-high in sacks came as a rookie in 2021 with 8.5.

Age undoubtedly played a factor, as Phillips will have a good chance to produce over the length of the deal. But when you consider the fact that Trey Hendrickson, the owner of four double-digit sack seasons, got $28 million in AAV from the Baltimore Ravens, the Panthers' price for Phillips looks suspect.

Phillips should be the Panthers' top pass rusher in 2026 and beyond. But in all likelihood, he won't be the top-10 player at his position that he's being paid to be.

Tyler Linderbaum, Raiders

• Years: 3
• Amount: $81 million

Throwing the bizarre Maxx Crosby situation between the Raiders and Ravens aside, center Tyler Linderbaum was expected to command a significant deal on the offensive line market this spring, but what Las Vegas committed to him surpassed those expectations.

Linderbaum didn't just become the highest-paid center in the league, which is understandable considering his reputation and his chance to cash in as the salary cap continues to elevate. He blew the second-highest paid center, Creed Humphrey, out of the water.

Linderbaum's AAV of $27 million is $9 million more than Humphrey's, who is now second among all centers, per Over the Cap. To put that in perspective, $9 million is around the difference between Humphrey's AAV and the ninth-highest-paid center, new Lions OL Cade Mays at $8.33 million. 

Las Vegas will come out of free agency with a reliable, sturdy center for likely No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, but the price to do that was excessive.

MORE MAXX CROSBY NEWS: 

• Why Maxx Crosby's trade to Ravens fell through
• What's next for Maxx Crosby after ending up back on Raiders?
• Inside Maxx Crosby's meniscus tear that triggered 'failed' physical 
• 5 reasons why Ravens signing Trey Hendrickson is better than Maxx Crosby trade

Malik Willis, Dolphins

• Years: 3
• Amount: $67.5 million

Here's yet another player who was widely expected to earn an inflated contract this offseason, little of which was actually based on his past performance. Malik Willis was the best quarterback on the open market, which says a bit about the passing talent to actually hit free agency this offseason.

Willis, however, played his best NFL football at the right time with the Packers. In limited action with Green Bay in 2025, he posted an excellent 85.7% completion percentage, three touchdown passes and 123 rushing yards. That small sample size was enough to earn a starting job as a free agent, and the Miami Dolphins were the team to bite.

This is a rare deal that could either look terrible or spectacular one year from now. If the Dolphins get the 2025 version of Willis, an efficient, dual-threat quarterback, that's worth more than $22.5 million per year. If they get the previous Willis, who had zero touchdown passes and three interceptions across his first 11 career games, this could be more disastrous.

Willis got paid for his potential by the Dolphins. If it doesn't work out, he's going to hurt their books in the future as they figure out an answer at quarterback.

Kenneth Walker III, Chiefs

• Years: 3
• Amount: $43.05 million

Kenneth Walker III is a good NFL starter. He proved as much in the final game of the 2025-26 season, winning Super Bowl MVP honors thanks to his performance against the New England Patriots. But it's also fair to say that Walker's postseason run came at the perfect time, right before he became a free agent.

If he hadn't won Super Bowl MVP or shined for Seattle in the playoffs, chances are, Walker wouldn't be the fourth-highest paid running back in the NFL right now, per Over the Cap. He trails only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey with his $14.35 AAV, all running backs who have won an Offensive Player of the Year award.

The Chiefs needed a capable running back, though, and Walker can certainly be that. He'll be a good fit as they lean more into their ground game alongside Patrick Mahomes' arm, potentially the team's first 1,000-yard rusher of the Mahomes era. 

Walker isn't going to be a weapon comparable to Barkley, Henry or McCaffrey, though. He cashed in at the right time with a premier NFL franchise, becoming one of the highest-paid players at his position despite being a limited receiving threat and never topping 1,100 rushing yards in a season.

MORE: Highest-paid NFL players in 2026, from Dak Prescott to Ja'Marr Chase

Isaiah Likely, Giants

• Years: 3
• Amount: $40 million

Add Isaiah Likely to the "paid for his potential" category alongside Willis, Pierce and more. At 25 years old, Likely became a free agent this offseason, known as one of the better receiving tight ends across the league, but without the numbers to prove it.

Over his time with the Ravens, Likely was logjammed behind veteran Mark Andrews on the depth chart annually. Baltimore ran plenty of two-tight-end sets with Likely and Andrews, but at the end of the day, Andrews' presence was always holding Likely back from being featured as one of the top players in the offense.

Likely's career-high in receiving yards came in 2024 when he had 477 yards with six touchdowns. Knowing those are his career-bests, he doesn't scream "$40 million player" — but it's understandable why it required that much money to land him.

Now the de facto TE1 on his team for the first time in his career, the Giants are hoping Likely can reach the higher level he's always been projected to. But with that assumption, of course, comes risk. Likely is now the fifth-highest-paid tight end in the NFL at $13.33 million per season, per Over the Cap, which tops far more proven names like Andrews ($13.08 million), Jake Ferguson ($12.5 million) or even Travis Kelce's new deal with the Chiefs ($12 million).

If Likely can't become the top-level receiving threat the Giants are anticipating, his contract will look extremely inflated.

Trent McDuffie, Rams

• Years: 4
• Amount: $124 million

There is a new highest-paid cornerback in football. After acquiring Trent McDuffie from the Chiefs, the Los Angeles Rams immediately locked him in for the long-term, agreeing to a four-year, $124 million extension.

Not only did McDuffie require trading a first-round pick for, but the Rams were willing to double down on their belief in him by making him the highest-paid corner in the league at $31 million per year, topping Sauce Gardner's $30.1 million.

There's no doubt McDuffie belongs on the short list of elite defensive backs, but whether he's the best corner in the NFL is a tough argument. In four NFL seasons, he has three interceptions. His best season was in 2024, when he had 13 passes defended and two picks for Kansas City.

At just 25 years old, the Rams paid McDuffie to continue developing, on top of his status as a strong defender. Los Angeles paid a premium to secure a strong cornerback — one who has established himself as a rising star, but hasn't yet reached "best in the league" status.

MORE: Grading the Rams' trade for CB Trent McDuffie

Boye Mafe, Bengals

• Years: 3
• Amount: $60 million

Part of the Cincinnati Bengals' questionable decision-making here is how they handled the Hendrickson situation. After all the drama, contract debates and more, the Bengals never recouped some value for Hendrickson, letting him walk to a division rival for nothing in return.

Cincinnati then went out and spent its money on an EDGE/OLB, Boye Mafe, who might help replace some of Hendrickson's pass-rushing production, but not even close to all of it. Mafe, 27, had some strong years in Seattle, including nine sacks in 2023, but he finished with just 31 tackles and two sacks in 2025 for the Super Bowl champions.

The way Mafe is being paid, at $20 million per year, he's being handed a role to virtually replace Hendrickson and single-handedly help improve a struggling Bengals pass rush. And while Maye is a solid player, one has to consider the system he's coming from — the Seahawks' defense under Mike Macdonald has been arguably the league's best, and Mafe was surrounded by elite talent throughout his unit.

There's a player vs. system conversation to be had about whether Mafe can now go to Cincinnati and continue producing at a strong level. He's being paid the same annually as Roquan Smith, who had 130 tackles in 2025, and $1 million less per year than Fred Warner, who has been one of the league's most versatile defenders when healthy.

The Bengals' solution to losing Hendrickson appeared to be throwing money at the next-best available option on the market. Mafe will help, but he's not going to mask what was, once again, one of the league's worst pass rushes in 2025, especially without Hendrickson.