Most Canadians Say US Trade Deal Unlikely in Next Six Months

42rs)3g16i67a11hq8s{l47b_media_dl_1.png Nanos Research Group for Bloombe

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(Bloomberg) — Canadians have little faith a trade deal with the US will be reached in the next six months, after US President Donald Trump blew up talks over an anti-tariff ad campaign launched by the province of Ontario.

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Some 67% of Canadians say it’s unlikely a deal to lower US tariffs will be achieved over the next half-year, according to a poll by Nanos Research Group for Bloomberg News. About 28% say it’s likely and 3% are unsure.

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Trump halted all trade talks with Canada in late October over Ontario’s ad, which used excerpts from a radio address by former President Ronald Reagan. Prime Minister Mark Carney said negotiations had been progressing toward a deal on steel, aluminum and energy. 

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The survey suggests Canadians may be understanding of Carney’s inability so far to reach a deal with the mercurial US president. Still, their patience may wear thin the longer the trade impasse continues and as the economic pain grows.

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Trump’s sectoral tariffs on Canadian metals, autos and softwood lumber have forced job losses and chilled business investment. He’s also imposed levies on many goods that don’t comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement he signed in his first term, adding to uncertainty.

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Carney apologized to Trump for the ad campaign, though the prime minister was not involved in its creation — the premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, spearheaded the strategy. Ford ultimately pulled the ads, but only after they aired during the first two games of the World Series. 

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Trump also threatened to add an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods over the ads, though the levy has yet to materialize.

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It’s not the first time the Carney government has appeared to edge close to a deal before talks collapsed.

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Carney was elected in April on a promise to negotiate a comprehensive economic and security agreement with the US. In June, he set a deadline of mid-July to reach a deal, but Trump called off the talks over Canada’s plan to implement a digital services tax on large technology companies. 

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Carney scrapped the tax so talks could resume, but the countries blew past the deadline nonetheless and Trump hiked tariffs on Aug. 1.

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After Carney visited the White House in early October, talks intensified on a deal that would have offered some relief on steel and aluminum tariffs, potentially in exchange for greater access to Canadian energy. But Trump’s outrage over Ontario’s ad ended those discussions.

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Carney recently acknowledged a comprehensive deal was unlikely before USMCA comes up for review in July 2026. Canada, Mexico and the US have all kicked off a public consultation process ahead of that review, which is widely expected to turn into a full renegotiation.

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But Canadians are also feeling gloomy about the future of that deal, the poll suggests. Some 60% believe it will be renewed with major or minor changes, while 30% expect it will be scrapped completely.

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The agreement is crucial to maintaining tariff-free access to the US market for the vast majority of Canadian goods. But Trump has already violated its terms by imposing sectoral tariffs. He’s said the US does not want to buy cars from Canada, and he’s also complained about other industries protected by USMCA, such as Canadian dairy.

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The poll of 1,045 Canadians was conducted online and by phone from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30, and has a margin of error of three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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