MLB home run leader odds, prediction: Should Kyle Schwarber be the favorite?

Major League batters are hitting home runs at a ridiculous rate these days.

The number of balls in play per game this season is at the fourth-lowest rate in league history, yet the league is hitting home runs at the sixth-highest rate of all time.

Three players had at least 30 homers entering Wednesday, but oddsmakers see the race for the most home runs as a two-man competition. Amazingly, that competition doesn’t include last season’s home run leader, Cal Raleigh, or Aaron Judge, who led all of baseball in homers twice in the last five seasons.

Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber entered play on Wednesday with 33 home runs, tied with Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez for the most in baseball. Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman had 31, while Junior Caminero and Ben Rice rounded out the top five.

But Schwarber is the odds-on favorite at bet365 sportsbook with -125 odds to lead the majors in home runs this season.

Schwarber has led the National League in home runs twice since joining the Phillies in 2022. He hit 46 in 2022 and 56 last year, edging out Shohei Ohtani by a single home run.

But he’s never led MLB, in part because his two best seasons coincided with American League players hitting 60 homers — Judge in 2022 and Raleigh last season.

MLB home run leader odds

This year could be his best chance to break through, hence the odds, but the competition is still stiff. Oddsmakers may see it as a two-man race, but the difference between the leader and fifth place is just four home runs. There’s plenty of season left, which is why now is a good time to take what we already know and see if we can find better value.

Yordan Alvarez #44 of the Houston Astros at bat. Getty Images

Baseball Savant tracks every home run and groups them into three buckets: doubters (home run in one to seven ballparks), mostly gone (home run in eight to 29 parks), and no doubters (home run in every park). It also tracks expected home runs compared to actual home runs.

Yordan Alvarez is the leader in the no-doubter category and the expected home run category with 21 homers this season that would be out in every ballpark and 37.3 expected home runs. Alvarez laps the rest of the field in the category; the next closest players in expected home runs are James Woods (29.7), Schwarber (28.9), and Rice (28.7).

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Alvarez’s hitting numbers this season are off the charts. Along with being tied for the MLB lead in home runs, he has the best OPS in baseball (1.082) and leads the AL in hits (120), RBI (75), and average (.326).

It doesn’t matter what pitchers throw at him either; Alvarez is slugging .673 on fastballs, .723 on breaking balls, and .538 on off-speed pitches, according to Baseball Savant.

Among the best home run hitters, no one is playing as well as Alvarez right now, and I’m happy to grab him at plus money with the race dead even.

The Pick: Yordan Alvarez MLB home run leader (+160, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.