MLB analyst projects Junior Caminero's offensive numbers to take a dip

The 2025 season was a rollercoaster for the Tampa Bay Rays and their fanbase. The team had to play its home games at Steinbrenner Field after Hurricane Milton did extensive damage to Tropicana Field. 

On top of that, fans were excited to see Shane McClanahan return to action after Tommy John surgery, but suffered a nerve-related issue and then was shut down in July due to bicep soreness. 

They were also without Ha-Seong Kim for much of the year before he was claimed off waivers by the Atlanta Braves. 

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MLB analyst projects Junior Caminero's offensive numbers to take a dip

While the team suffered from injuries, some players really stepped up. One of these players is Junior Caminero, who was one of the hottest hitters across MLB last season. 

Across 154 regular-season games, the slugger hit .264/.311/.535 with a career-high 45 home runs and 110 runs batted in. That was good enough for him to make his first All-Star appearance. 

Now, he will look to continue his commanding presence at the plate. He comes into the new season ranked as the 23rd-best player across baseball, according to ESPN. However, returning to Tropicana Field this season, Kiley McDaniel suggests his offensive numbers could take a hit. 

"Season prediction: Caminero's offensive numbers will be down a bit in 2026, partly because 45 homers is hard to replicate but also because of the aforementioned risk points. His expected wOBA being lower than his actual wOBA last year suggests there was some luck on balls in play."

Replicating 45 home runs is not an easy feat, and when looking at his actual wOBA versus expected wOBA, it suggests that he got a little lucky last season. Can he be lucky again this year? Yes, but you cannot rely purely on luck. 

His numbers should take a hit, but he should still serve as an offensive leader for the Rays.

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