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The runoff race for Miami mayor on Tuesday is the latest narrow test of voter sentiment about President Trump, after he endorsed Republican city manager Emilio Gonzalez.
Gonzalez faces former Miami-Dade County commissioner Eileen Higgins — who is trying to become the first Democrat to run the city in nearly three decades.
Neither are officially running under their party flags — Miami election rules mandate that mayoral races remain non-partisan — but everybody in the city, and across the country, know what’s really on the ballot.
“It’s no longer a mayoral race, about which is the better candidate,” Miami pollster Fernand Amandi told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s a national referendum on the Republican versus Democratic Party.”
President Trump himself endorsed Gonzalez, as did prominent Republicans like DeSantis, Rep. Rick Scott, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
Nationally known Democrats like former Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, meanwhile, have endorsed and campaigned for Higgins.
Higgins came out on top in the first round of voting in November — clinching 36% of the vote to 19% for Gonzalez — in a crowded field.
Higgins represented Miami’s Cuban enclave known as Little Havana while commissioner, and has focused on issues like housing and affordability, and characterized Republicans as hostile to immigrants.
But the city of 440,000 is heavily Hispanic, and voter turnout Tuesday could be a bellwether for the nation’s trajectory into the 2026 midterms.
Miami’s biggest Hispanic population is Cuban — a group that has previously voted much more strongly for Republicans and Trump, than other Hispanic blocs.
Democrats view victory as a rejection of Trump policies like immigration crackdowns, while Republicans want the nation to see a Latin hub giving its endorsement.
The election comes as Democrats are beginning to feel they have just such a rejection on their hands after a series of key victories across the country in the November elections.
Democrats took back control of Virginia when former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won the gubernatorial race, while New Jersey’s hotly contested race also held blue after when Rep. Mikie Sherrill placed Trump-opposition at the center of her campaign.
Hispanic voters shifted from Republican to Democrat played crucial roles in both those elections.
And a Tennessee special election for one of the state’s US congressional reps went to Republicans last week by considerably narrower margins than were expected, while Zohran Mamdani easily won NYC’s mayoral race despite his extremely far-left positions.
Republicans, however, have maintained a years-long grip over Florida that was solidified with Gov. DeSantis’ staunchly open COVID-19 pandemic policies. He went on to keep his office in 2022, while Trump handily won the state in 2024 after it went to Biden in 2020 and Clinton in 2016.
Democrats and Republicans across the country are both keenly aware how turning Miami blue would be perceived — and are doing everything they can to push things their way.
And the candidates themselves are leaning hard on the partisan narrative at play.
“You can’t vote against Donald Trump in the runoff for Miami Mayor, but you can reject Republican Emilio Gonzalez,” read Higgens campaign mailer with a picture of Gonzalez wearing a red MAGA hat, according to the Journal.
“Send a clear message: Trump’s endorsement will be rejected in Miami!” read another, written in Spanish.
“When we start to enforce whatever shenanigans is coming out of the federal government to just randomly pick people up, we could erode that trust,” Higgins previously said.
Gonzales — who directed President George W. Bush’s US Citizenship and Immigration Services and has proposed eliminating property taxes — has supported Trump’s immigration initiatives, but has also deflected and called the topic a “federal issue.”
“This is not an issue that has to do with the mayor of Miami,” he said during a recent debate.
With Post wires.
English (US)