The New York Mets have not had a good 2026 season at all. Coming out of the All-Star break, they're 40-57, and 16.0 games back in the NL East.
But, more importantly, the Mets are 12.0 games back in the NL Wild Card race. With 2.5 months to go, that's a very worrying mark for the Mets. It'd take a miracle to make up the ground needed to get to the postseason at this rate.
That feeling is further confirmed by ESPN's Bradford Doolittle, who handed the Mets a trio of bleak 0.0% projections to make the postseason, as he's effectively written off the Mets despite a hair under half a season to go.
Mets receive 0.0% playoff, NL East, and World Series projections
"Record: 40-57 | Projected final record: 67-95. Division title odds: 0.0% | Playoff odds: 0.0% | Championship odds: 0.0%," Doolittle projects.
Unfortunately for the Mets, this trio of 0.0% projections coming out of the All-Star break is probably an accurate description of their odds right now.
Making up 16 games in the NL East seems impossible, and a 0.0% chance of doing so seems about right.
The same goes for making the playoffs entirely. They are 12 games back, which isn't an insurmountable deficit. But it would just take a very strong stretch to make up that ground, and the odds of that happening are low, potentially even 0.0%.
If the Mets can't win the NL East, and they can't even sneak into the Wild Card in most scenarios, then winning the World Series is totally out of the question.
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For how this team came into the year as a top World Series contender with all of their offseason spending, the outcome of the season thus far has been incredibly disappointing.
Doolittle is projecting the Mets to finish with 67 wins and 95 losses, which would have them well below .500, and likely missing the postseason by 20-plus games as well.
Things might only get worse for the Mets as David Stearns and Steve Cohen really have no choice but to trade away players at the deadline this summer.
Freddy Peralta, Luke Weaver, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, Luis Robert Jr., Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, and many others could be on the move by the August 3 deadline. Depending on who goes, the Mets could fall even further below .500.
They already have a 0.0% chance to win the World Series, the NL East, and make the postseason. But, how far can they fall? It could be a long July, August, and September for Mets fans, as it's been a very bleak season for the franchise.
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