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When Penn State hired Matt Campbell, it was a clear signal that the administration wanted a cultural reset and a proven program builder to navigate the treacherous waters of the 18-team Big Ten. The good news for Nittany Lions fans? The floor is high. The bad news? Reaching the conference's elite tier is going to take more than one season.
The College Football Playoff structure offers a lifeline to many programs navigating a coaching transition, but for Penn State, simply reaching the threshold of the elite tier remains a significant hurdle.
According to CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford’s Big Ten outlook, Campbell’s debut season in Happy Valley is projected to yield a 9-3 overall finish (6-3 in conference play)—a mark that secures a premium bowl game but ultimately keeps the Nittany Lions outside the playoff picture.
Campbell’s culture and player development will be evident from Week 1. Crawford expects the Nittany Lions to handle the games they are supposed to win, projecting victories over Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo in the non-conference slate, followed by Big Ten wins over Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland.
But peeling back the layers of this 9-3 projection reveals a glaring issue: a complete lack of marquee victories.
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"The Nittany Lions will get to 9-3 by virtue of not holding a single ranked win, which puts them into one of the league's better bowl games but outside of the CFP conversation," Crawford noted, attributing much of the success to "one of the Big Ten's softer slates."
The difference between a good season and a playoff berth in the 18-team Big Ten comes down to how a team performs against the heavyweights. Crawford’s model predicts that Penn State will drop all three of its high-profile matchups, projecting a home loss to USC and brutal road defeats at Michigan and Washington.
While going 9-3 in a transition year is objectively a success, the lack of signature wins proves that Penn State is not yet equipped to bully the conference's elite.
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"Nine wins in Year 1 keep Penn State in the national conversation and provide a strong foundation for Campbell's long-term vision in Happy Valley," Crawford wrote.
We'll see if it pays off.
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