March Madness predictions 2026: Mike DeCourcy's expert NCAA Tournament bracket picks

The word “chalk” has been used a lot lately in regards to the NCAA Tournament, specifically the 2025 version that produced few upsets and four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four only for the second time ever.

And it’s always used in the context of a four-letter word.

I don’t see that with this year’s event.

Maybe there will be as few mid-majors taking down high majors. But when we all get to Indianapolis for a Final Four in the single best place to hold a Final Four, don’t expect it to be overcrowded with this season’s heavyweights. Programs with tradition? Sure. Programs with five-star players and future draft picks? No doubt.

But the No. 1 seeds are not as sturdy in 2026. It’s largely because of injury, but that’s where we are.

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East Region picks

SN

FIRST ROUND

1 Duke over 16 Siena

8 Ohio State over 8 TCU

5 St. John’s over 12 Northern Iowa

4 Kansas over 13 Cal Baptist

11 South Florida over 6 Louisville

3 Michigan State over 14 North Dakota State

7 UCLA over 10 UCF

2 UConn State over 15 Furman

SECOND ROUND

1 Duke over 8 Ohio State

5 St. John’s over 4 Kansas

3 Michigan State over 11 USF

2 UConn over Furman

SWEET 16

5 St. John’s over 1 Duke

3 Michigan State over 2 UConn

ELITE EIGHT

5 St. John’s over 3 Michigan State

Am I crazy? Maybe. But I’m crazy enough to want Rick Pitino and Zuby Ejiofor on my side.

An intact Duke runs through this bracket. However, the injury that is expected to keep elite defensive point guard Caleb Foster out until the Final Four might keep the Devils from reaching the Final Four. The Red Storm might be the team to manage Duke’s extraordinary Sporting News Player of the Year Cameron Boozer.

Pitino might have one more Final Four in him.

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year

West Region picks

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FIRST ROUND

1 Arizona over 16 LIU

5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point

4 Arkansas over 13 Hawaii

9 Utah State over 8 Villanova

6 BYU over 11 Texas

3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw State

10 Missouri over 7 Miami

2 Purdue over 15 Queens

SECOND ROUND

1 Arizona over 9 Utah State

5 Wisconsin over 4 Arkansas

6 BYU over 3 Gonzaga

2 Purdue over 10 Missouri

SWEET 16

1 Arizona over 5 Wiscnson

2 Purdue over 6 BYU

ELITE EIGHT

1 Arizona over 2 Purdue

It’ll be the kids against the vets. But Purdue is an ideal matchup for Arizona.

The need for the Boilers to establish a low post offense to give balance to their perimeter attack should be jammed up by the excellent Wildcats frontcourt rotation. It is possible to get those guys in foul trouble, which Houston managed in the Big 12 Championship game, so it’ll be essential for Arizona to play smart.

But the winner of games such as these always must.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Midwest Region picks

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FIRST ROUND

1 Michigan over 16 Howard

8 Georgia over 9 Saint Louis

5 Texas Tech over 12 Akron

4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra

6 Tennessee over 11 SMU

3 Virginia over 14 Wright State

10 Santa Clara over 7 Kentucky

2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee State

SECOND ROUND

1 Michigan over 9 Georgia

4 Alabama over 5 Texas Tech

6 Tennessee over 3 Virginia

2 Iowa State over 10 Santa Clara

SWEET 16

1 Michigan over 4 Alabama

2 Iowa State over 3 Tennessee

ELITE EIGHT

2 Iowa State over 1 Michigan

Perhaps if Michigan gets this far, the Wolverines will have reimagined themselves as a team capable of reaching the Final Four.

But they’ll still need to deal with the ferocity of Iowa State’s defense.

The Cyclones are as hard to score against as anyone this side of Houston, and this version of Iowa State would be a mighty challenge for the Wolverines.

South Region picks

SN

FIRST ROUND

1 Florida over 16 Lehigh

9 Iowa over 8 Clemson

5 Vanderbilt over 12 McNeese

13 Troy over 4 Nebraska

11 VCU over 6 North Carolina

3 Illinois over 14 Penn

7 Saint Mary’s over 10 Texas A&M

2 Houston over 15 Idaho

SECOND ROUND

1 Florida over 9 Iowa

5 Vanderbilt over 13 Troy

3 Illinois over 11 VCU

2 Houston over 7 Saint Mary’s

SWEET 16

1 Florida over 5 Vanderbilt

2 Houston over 3 Illinois

ELITE EIGHT

2 Houston over 1 Florida

A title game rematch – but not in the title game!

If there’s any team in college basketball that can stand up physically to that overwhelming Florida front line, it’s Houston. The Cougars aren’t going to get any offense from their big men. That’s hard enough when you’re not playing against an NCAA championship frontcourt, and the Cougs forwards aren't overwhelmingly productive against a routine challenge.

But Kingston Flemings and his friends can do their thing against the Gators guards, and the Cougars will have the homecourt advantage.

Final Four picks

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2 Houston over 5 St. John’s

1 Arizona over 2 Iowa State

1 Arizona over Houston

Those who tell you it’s impossible to win an NCAA Championship with a team oriented toward freshmen are asking you to forget it already happened. Three times.

The first was in 2003, with Carmelo Anthony, Gerry McNamara and Billy Edelin pushing Syracuse to the top. And again in 2012 with the Kentucky squad led by Anthony Davis. It happened in 2015 with the Duke team featuring Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones. And the stunning national championship game hero of that third one was a little-used freshman, Grayson Allen.

You know I wrote this all a year ago, right?

I picked Duke then. If a senior guard had succeeded at inbounding the basketball at least once in multiple tries over the final two minutes in the Devils’ semifinal game against Houston, I might have been right.

This time, I will be.

Arizona has three freshman starters, but it’s a team run by a senior who’s been playing winning basketball at point guard since his freshman year at Alabama. That’s Jaden Bradley. He’s a Sporting News All-American and Big 12 Player of the Year.

Arizona has three freshman starters, but it’s a team with legit paint protection from a veteran center, Mo Krivas, who is 7-2 and good for 2 blocks a game.

Arizona has three freshman starters, but Anthony Dell’Orso gives the Wildcats a senior wing who has learned to love his scoring role off the bench.

Arizona has three freshman starters, but those three are legit: guard Brayden Burries, a comprehensive, three-level scorer; power forward Koa Peat, who is an exceptional defender and threat to score in the lane and beyond, and Ivan Kharchenkov, a 6-7 wing who has managed to become a “glue guy” just 34 games into his career.

The Wildcats have all the ingredients – even experience. It’s been nearly 30 years since they won it last. It’s not too early for Arizona. It’s time.