March Madness predictions 2026: Bill Bender's expert NCAA Tournament bracket picks

It's time for the Big Ten drought to end. 

The Big Ten hasn't won a men's basketball national championship since 2000 – a fact I would have deemed impossible when I watched Michigan State beat Florida in 89-76 from a not-so-well-kept college apartment on April 3, 2000. 

The Big Ten had won five national championships in my lifetime at that point. How old am I now? 

It's not important. Michigan – despite an 80-72 loss in the Big Ten tournament to Purdue on Sunday – is the conference's best bet to break that drought in the 2025-26 NCAA Tournament. The Wolverines finished unbeaten on the road in Big Ten play – and that's what I'm leaning on more heading into the one-and-done nature of the NCAA Tournament. 

For perspective, I've done NCAA tournament predictions for Sporting News since 2018 and four times my national championship pick did not get out of the first weekend. That included Illinois in 2021 - the last Big Ten team I believed would win the whole thing. The last two seasons, my national championship picks were good enough. UConn (2024) won the national championship and Duke (2025) made the Final Four. 

Are there concerns with Michigan? LJ Cason's season-ending injury means less depth at point guard. Yaxel Lendeborg tweaked his ankle late in the loss to the Boilermakers. The Wolverines are 6-2 when limited to less than 75 points – and those six wins are by an average of 4.7 points per game. 

Duke and Arizona – the other 30-win teams on the No. 1 seed line – are every bit as capable of winning the national title. So is Florida, the defending national champion. Michigan has lost its last four national championship games. The Wolverines, however, still feel like the best team this year.  

The Big Ten has lost eight straight national championship games since the Spartans cut down the net in 2000. That streak comes to an end now. 

How did we get there? Let's take a closer look.

MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | Full TV schedule | Printable bracket

East Region picks

SN

FIRST ROUND

1 Duke over 16 Siena 

8 Ohio State over 9 TCU

5. St. John's over 12 Northern Iowa 

4 Kansas over 13 California Baptist 

6 Louisville over 11 South Florida 

3 Michigan State 14 North Dakota State

10 UCF over 7 UCLA 

2 UConn over 15 Furman 

SECOND ROUND 

1 Duke over 8 Ohio State 

5 St. John's over 4 Kansas 

3 Michigan State over 6 Louisville 

2 UConn over 10 UCF 

SWEET 16

1 Duke over 5 St. John's

3 Michigan State over 2 UConn 

ELITE EIGHT 

1 Duke over 3 Michigan State 

Tell Duke what they've won for clinching the No. 1 overall seed. How about a bracket that includes four national championship coaches in Rick Pitino (St. John's), Bill Self (Kansas), Dan Hurley (UConn) and Tom Izzo (Michigan State). Good lord. 

The only double-digit upset we are picking is UCF over UCLA – and that might hinge on Donovan Dent's status for the Bruins. There is too much blue-blooded chalk in this region.

A lot of the talk around about the Blue Devils will be about what they don't have with injuries to starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba. The Blue Devils won the ACC tournament with a seven-man rotation – and they still have the best all-around player in the country in Cameron Boozer. 

The tricky spot could be a potential second-round matchup against Ohio State – which features all-time leading scorer Bruce Thornton. That will be a tough out for the Blue Devils no matter who is playing. 

Who will join them? A potential second-round matchup between St. John's and Kansas. This will be the showcase game for Darryn Peterson. Can Michigan State and UConn be the other half of the Sweet 16? The Spartans are 4-3 against UConn under Tom Izzo, so we give the slight edge to Michigan State. 

That sets up an Elite Eight matchup between Duke and Michigan State. The Spartans won the Elite Eight matchup in 2019 that knocked Zion Williamson out of the tournament. This time, the Blue Devils come through. 

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year

West Region picks

SN

FIRST ROUND

1 Arizona over 16 Long Island 

9 Utah State over 8 Villanova 

5 Wisconsin over 12 High Point 

4 Arkansas over 13 Hawai'i 

6 BYU over 11 Texas/NC State 

3 Gonzaga over 14 Kennesaw State 

7 Miami (Fla.) over 10 Missouri 

2 Purdue over 15 Queens 

SECOND ROUND 

1 Arizona over 9 Utah State

4 Arkansas over 5 Wisconsin 

3 Gonzaga over 6 BYU 

7 Miami (Fla.) over 2 Purdue 

SWEET 16

1 Arizona over 4 Arkansas 

3 Gonzaga over 7 Miami (Fla.) 

ELITE EIGHT 

1 Arizona over 3 Gonzaga 

Arizona had an argument to be the top overall seed in this tournament – led by Sporting News Coach of the Year Tommy Lloyd. Arizona has won nine straight games – including six games against ranked opponents. Arizona has five players who average double-digits, and Lloyd has taken the lessons he learned as an assistant under Gonzaga coach Mark Few and literally ran with them. 

Which leads to one of the most interesting potential matchups of the tournament. Gonzaga won 30 games this season, and it is a Final Four-caliber team despite the potential absence of forward Braden Huff, who averaged 17.8 points and 5.6 rebounds this season. That's our Elite Eight pick, but there are a few pot-holes that could get in the way. 

The potential second-round matchup between Wisconsin and Arkansas could be one one of the best games of the tournament. John Calipari gets the Razorbacks to the Sweet 16 for the second straight season. We also have Purdue losing to Miami (Fla.) in the second round. The Boilermakers are coming off the Big Ten tournament championship, so it's an admitted stretch. BYU forward AJ Dybantsa led the nation with 25.3 points per game. Can he lead a tournament run? 

We do think the Arizona-Gonzaga matchup materializes, and what better way to decide the West Region? The Bulldogs have won the last three meetings, but Lloyd has yet to face his former team.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Midwest Region picks

SN

FIRST ROUND

1 Michigan over 16 UMBC/Howard 

8 Georgia over 9 Saint Louis 

12 Akron over 5 Texas Tech 

4 Alabama over 13 Hofstra 

6 Tennessee over 11 Miami (Ohio)/SMU 

3 Virginia over 14 Wright State 

7 Kentucky over 10 Santa Clara 

2 Iowa State over 15 Tennessee State 

SECOND ROUND 

1 Michigan over 8 Georgia 

4 Alabama over 12 Akron 

3 Virginia over 6 Tennessee 

2 Iowa State over 7 Kentucky 

SWEET 16

1 Michigan over 4 Alabama 

3 Virginia over 2 Iowa State 

ELITE EIGHT 

1 Michigan over 3 Virginia

Michigan might have to run through a mini-SEC obstacle course in order to get to the Final Four. This will be the most entertaining region. Six of the teams rank in the top-10 in scoring offense, and Michigan (87.9) will see one of those teams in either Georgia (89.8) or St. Louis (87.8) in the second round. 

Thankfully, we get to see Robbie Avila in the Big Dance. Alabama (91.7), Miami (Ohio) (90.7) and Akron (88.6) also were in the top 10.

We like Akron for a 5-12 upset against Texas Tech, which has struggled lately without JT Toppin. The X-factor is Kentucky, which has been up and down all season and tough to predict under second-year coach Mark Pope. This feels like the perfect time for Virginia or Iowa State to steal this region – and that will be an excellent Sweet 16 matchup. Ryan Odom is 57-12 in the last two seasons between VCU and Virginia. They are the ultimate sleeper Final Four team. 

Michigan might have to go through Georgia, Alabama and possibly Tennessee – who we have undersold a little bit – in order to get to the Final Four. The Wolverines lost to Auburn in the Sweet 16 last season. We still think Lendeborg and Aday Mara lead this team to the Final Four. Trust Dusty May here. 

South Region picks

SN

FIRST ROUND

1 Florida over 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh 

8 Iowa over 9 Clemson 

12 McNeese over 5 Vanderbilt 

4 Nebraska over 13 Troy 

6 North Carolina over 11 VCU 

3 Illinois over 14 Penn 

10 Texas A&M over 7 Saint Mary's 

2 Houston over 15 Idaho 

SECOND ROUND 

1 Florida over 8 Iowa 

4 Nebraska over 12 McNeese

3 Illinois over 6 North Carolina 

2 Houston over 10 Texas A&M 

SWEET 16

1 Florida over 4 Nebraska 

3 Illinois over 2 Houston 

ELITE EIGHT 

3 Illinois over 1 Florida 

This feels like the most wide open and difficult region to pick among the bunch – and it could lead to some exciting games. Florida – the defending national champion – averages 87.7 points per game with the imposing front court of Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon. They could face two Big Ten teams after the first round in Iowa and Nebraska. We like the Huskers to win their first NCAA tournament game in school history – then to make it two under Fred Hoiberg with a Sweet 16 run. 

Looking for the 5-12 upset? We're going right back to McNeese. The Cowboys will not catch Vanderbilt off guard, and the Commodores have a dynamic backcourt in Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. McNeese is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to turnover margin.

The bottom half of the bracket is more exciting. Illinois averages 84.4 points per game. The Illini are one of the best teams in the country when they are playing at their best – but will that be good enough against Houston? The Cougars still have the tested defense that ranks second in the nation at 62.9 points per game. 

It's a lot of faith in Illinois knowing the Illini have made the second weekend one time in the last five tournaments under Brad Underwood. Yet would you be surprised if this team makes this run after the Big Ten tournament exit? 

MORE EXPERT BRACKETS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

Final Four

SN

1 Duke over 3 Illinois 

1 Michigan over 1 Arizona 

1 Michigan over 1 Duke 

No. 1 seeds have occupied six of the eight Final Four spots the last two seasons, and this is admittedly chalky. Both games would be high-scoring matchups. Why so much faith in the chalk? Duke, Michigan and Arizona were 30-win teams. Arizona's injury concerns are over with the return of Koa Peat, but Michigan is good enough to win that game if Elliot Cadeau is at his best. We think the Blue Devils storm past Illinois. That sets up a rematch of the Feb. 21 matchup where the Blue Devils beat the Wolverines 68-63. Michigan shot 6 of 25 from 3-point range in that game. The Wolverines find a way in the rematch – and the Big Ten drought ends.