March Madness bracket predictions 6.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2026 NCAA Tournament

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Conference tournament week is here. 

Five teams have clinched spots in the 2025-26 NCAA Tournament, and Selection Sunday looms on March 15. What drama could unfold this week? 

The conference tournament action heats up Wednesday. 

The No. 1 seeds have changed in our latest projections. Duke and Michigan – and likely Arizona – look good for No. 1 seeds. All three teams finished 29-2 in the regular season, and that should be rewarded. Florida overtakes UConn for the final No. 1 seed, and that could change based on results in the SEC and Big East tournaments. 

The bubble also will be worth watching in the last week. 

This year's Final Four is April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. 

Who is in our latest Field of 68? A closer look: 

+ -Clinched automatic NCAA tournament berth
* - Projected automatic bid
** - Last four in 

MORE: Automatic bid tracker for NCAA Tournament

NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections

No. 1 Seeds

*Duke (29-2, 17-1 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom: 1, Net: 1. Cameron Boozer had 26 points, 15 rebounds and five assists in a 76-61 victory against North Carolina. Duke has 15 Quad 1 victories. The Blue Devils will try to win the ACC tournament for the third time in four years. 

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year 

*Michigan (29-2, 19-1 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 2, Net 2. Michigan capped off a Big Ten championship season with a 90-80 victory against rival Michigan State. The Wolverines will look for a second straight Big Ten tournament championship under coach Dusty May. 

*Arizona (30-2, 16-2 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 3, Net 3. Arizona is on a seven-game winning streak – and that includes victories against four ranked Big 12 opponents. The Wildcats opened Big 12 tournament play with a 81-59 victory against UCF. 

*Florida (25-6, 16-2 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 4. Florida jumps up to the No. 1 line heading into the SEC tournament. The Gators have a 11-5 record against Quad 1. Thomas Haugh averaged 21 points and seven rebounds in victories against Arkansas and Kentucky to close out the regular season. 

No. 2 Seeds

*UConn (27-4, 17-3 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 9. The Huskies slipped a line after a 68-62 loss against Marquette, a game in which coach Dan Hurley was ejected. The Huskies are the No. 2 seed in the Big East tournament behind regular-season champion St. John's. 

Houston (26-5, 14-4 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 7. The Cougars could still work into the No. 1 seed conversation with a strong showing in the Big 12 tournament. Houston is 7-5 in Quad 1 and does not have a loss in Quads 2-4. 

Illinois (24-7, 15-5 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 5. Freshman David Mirkovic averaged 20.5 points and nine rebounds in victories against Oregon and Maryland to close out the Big Ten season. Illinois will look for its third Big Ten tournament championship since 2021 this week. 

Michigan State (25-6, 15-5 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 11. The Spartans were swept by Michigan, but coach Tom Izzo still has Michigan State on this line after a strong regular season. It's a close call with Nebraska – a matchup that could materialize in the Big Ten semifinals. 

Pryce Sandfort

No. 3 Seeds 

Iowa State (27-6, 12-6 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom: 7, Net: 8. The Cyclones defeated Texas Tech 75-53 in the Big 12 tournament on Thursday. Iowa State is 6-6 in Quad 1 and has a 10-0 record in Quad 2. It's a strong resume. 

Nebraska (26-5, 15-5  Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 12, Net: 12. The Huskers have an almost identical resume to Michigan State, including a 58-56 head-to-head victory in the regular season. Five Huskers average more than nine points per game under coach Fred Hoiberg. 

Alabama (23-8, 13-5 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 15, Net 17. Alabama has made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament three of the last four years under coach Nate Oats. Labaron Philon Jr. averaged 23.3 points in the Crimson Tide's last three games. 

Purdue (23-8, 13-7 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 8, Net: 10. The Boilermakers are ahead of Kansas on the No. 3 line – at least for now. Purdue lost three of its last four games in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers allowed 85 points per game in those losses. 

No. 4 seeds

Gonzaga (30-3, 16-2 West Coast) 

Resume: KenPom: 11, Net: 6. Gonzaga hit the 30-win mark with a 79-68 victory against Santa Clara in the West Coast Conference championship. Mario Saint-Supery hit six 3-pointers in the victory. Will that be enough to push the Bulldogs up to the No. 3 line? 

Kansas (22-9, 12-6 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 19, Net 19. The Jayhawks are one of the more polarizing teams among the higher seeds. Darryn Peterson had 27 points, five rebounds and four assists in a 104-85 victory against Kansas State in the regular-season finale. 

Virginia (27-4, 15-3 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 20, Net 14. The Cavaliers have one loss since Jan. 27 – and that was a 77-51 loss at Duke on Feb. 28. First-year coach Ryan Odom is among the Coach of the Year candidates as a result. 

St. John's (26-6, 18-2 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom 21, Net 21. The Red Storm won the Big East for the second straight season under Rick Pitino. St. John's is still tough to seed because of a 4-5 record against Quad 1 opponents and a Quad 3 loss, but we'll keep them on this line after a 85-72 victory against Providence on Thursday. 

No. 5 seeds

Vanderbilt (24-7, 11-7 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 13, Net 16. The Commodores could bump up a line after an impressive week that included road victories at Ole Miss and Tennessee. Arkansas could also move into this line depending on how the SEC tournament plays out. 

Arkansas (23-8, 13-5 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 18, Net 18. The Razorbacks have won four of their last five games heading into the SEC tournament under John Calipari. Darius Acuff (22.2 ppg.) sat out the regular-season finale against Missouri because of an ankle injury. 

Texas Tech (22-10, 12-6 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 17, Net 15. The Red Raiders will head into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak after the loss to Iowa State on Thursday. Texas Tech does have an 8-8 record against Quad 1 – so what is the balance? 

Wisconsin (23-9, 14-6 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 23, Net 26. The Badgers beat Washington 85-82 in the Big Ten tournament on Thursday. Wisconsin was 3-1 against the top four seeds in the tournament and has a 8-7 record against Quad 1 opponents. The Badgers play the Illini on Friday. 

No. 6 seeds

Tennessee (22-10, 11-7 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 16, Net 20. Nate Ament returned from injury and scored 27 points in a 72-62 victory against Auburn. Tennessee is 11-10 in Quads 1-2 heading into the SEC quarterfinals. 

North Carolina (24-7, 12-6 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 31, Net 23. The Tar Heels will not have Caleb Wilson for the rest of the season. North Carolina is 6-7 against Quad 1 opponents under Hubert Davis, and the Tar Heels do not have a loss in Quads 2-4.

BYU (23-10, 9-9 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 25, Net 24. The Cougars finished .500 in Big 12 play, and AJ Dybantsa (24.7 ppg.) has 20 or more points in eight straight games. The Cougars beat West Virginia 68-48 on Wednesday. 

Louisville (23-10, 11-7 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 14, Net 13. Louisville could hang on this line on the strength of a 7-9 record against Quad 1 opponents. The Cardinals have no room to move up after losing 78-73 to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals. 

Otega Oweh

No. 7 seeds 

Miami, Fla. (25-7, 13-5 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 29, Net 32. Malik Reneau scored 24 points in a 78-73 victory against Louisville on Thursday, which pushed the Hurricanes into the ACC semifinals and might lead to a line swap with Louisville. It's close. 

Kentucky (21-12, 10-8 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 27, Net 28. The Wildcats beat Missouri 78-72 on Thursday. The up-and-down season continues under second-year coach Mark Pope heading into Friday's game against Florida. 

Villanova (24-7, 13-5 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom 32, Net 33. Villanova has a 2-6 record against Quad 1 opponents, but the Wildcats look safe as the third team in from the Big East. 

Saint Mary's (27-5, 16-2 West Coast) 

Resume: KenPom 22, Net 22. Saint Mary's lost 76-71 to Santa Clara in West Coast Conference tournament action on Monday, but their ranking combination is strong enough to stay on this line. 

No. 8 seeds 

*Saint Louis (27-4, 15-3 Atlantic 10) 

Resume: KenPom 40, Net 27. The Billikens have split their last four games and split the Atlantic 10 regular-season championship with VCU as a result. Robbie Avila averaged 11.8 points per game in that four-game stretch. 

*Utah State (26-6, 15-5 MWC) 

Resume: KenPom 36, Net 29. The Aggies won the Mountain West regular-season championship and beat UNLV 80-60 in the conference tournament. Utah State is all but guaranteed an at-large berth; which would mark its fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance.  

UCLA (21-10, 13-7 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 28, Net 34. Mick Cronin helped turn UCLA's season around. The Bruins won four of their last five games and had blowout victories against Nebraska and USC to close the regular season. 

Georgia (22-9, 8-8 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom: 30, Net: 31. The Bulldogs won their last three games, including a 98-88 victory against Alabama. Kanon Catchings averaged 28.5 points in the Bulldogs' last two games. 

Rest of the field ... 

No. 9 seeds 

Ohio State (21-11, 12-8  Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 26, Net 30.

Clemson (23-9, 12-6 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 38, Net 36.

Iowa (21-12, 10-10 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 24, Net 25. 

Texas A&M (21-10, 11-7 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 34, Net 43. 

No. 10 seeds 

TCU (22-10, 11-7 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 42, Net 39.

NC State (20-13, 10-8 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 34, Net 35. 

Santa Clara (26-8, 15-3 West Coast) 

Resume: KenPom 36, Net 40. 

VCU (24-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10) 

Resume: KenPom 46, Net 44. 

No. 11 seeds

*Akron (27-5, 17-1 MAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 59, Net: 53. 

Miami (Ohio) (31-1, 18-0 MAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 90, Net: 54. 

**Missouri (20-12, 10-8 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 50, Net 59.

**UCF (21-11, 9-9 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 52, Net 50.

**Texas (18-14, 9-9 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 39, Net 43.

**SMU (20-13, 8-10 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 41, Net 37.

No. 12 seeds

*South Florida (23-8, 15-3 American) 

Resume: KenPom: 52, Net: 48. 

+McNeese (28-5, 19-3 Southland) 

Resume: Net: 66, KenPom: 61.

+Northern Iowa (23-12, 11-9 MVC) 

Resume: KenPom 70, Net: 71. 

*Yale (23-5, 11-3 Ivy) 

Resume: KenPom: 78, Net: 65.  

No. 13 seeds

*Utah Valley (22-7, 12-4 WAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 89, Net: 84. 

*High Point (30-4, 15-1 Big South) 

Resume: KenPom: 93, Net: 74. 

+Hofstra (24-10, 12-6 CAA) 

Resume: KenPom: 87, Net: 88.

*Sam Houston (21-10, 13-7 Conference USA) 

Resume: KenPom: 107, Net: 103. 

No. 14 seeds

*UC-Irvine (22-10, 15-5 Big West) 

Resume: KenPom: 106, Net: 118. 

+North Dakota State (27-7, 14-2 Summit) 

Resume: KenPom: 114, Net: 115.

+Wright State (23-11, 15-5 Horizon) 

Resume: KenPom: 138, Net: 128. 

+Troy (22-11, 12-6 Sun Belt) 

Resume: KenPom: 142, Net: 127.

No. 15 seeds 

+Idaho (21-14, 9-9 Big Sky) 

Resume: KenPom: 144, Net: 142.

+Tennessee State (23-9, 15-5) 

Resume: KenPom: 186, Net: 172. 

+Furman (22-12, 10-8 Southern) 

Resume: KenPom: 187, Net: 186. 

+Siena (23-11, 13-7 MAAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 190, Net: 182.

No. 16 seeds

+Queens University (21-13, 13-5 Atlantic Sun) 

Resume: KenPom: 184, Net: 191.

*Howard (21-10, 11-3 MEAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 202, Net: 200. 

**UMBC (23-8, 14-2 America East) 

Resume: KenPom: 194, Net: 201. 

+**Long Island (24-10, 15-3 Northeast) 

Resume: KenPom: 216, Net: 196.

+Lehigh (18-16, 11-7 Patriot) 

Resume: KenPom: 290, Net: 282.

**Florida A&M (15-15, 11-7 SWAC)

Resume: KenPom: 313, Net: 311.

Bubble watch 

New Mexico (22-9, 13-7 MWC) 

Resume: KenPom 49, Net 45. The Lobos will need a few wins in the Mountain West Conference tournament to work into the final few spots of the tournament. 

Auburn (17-16, 7-11 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 39, Net 39. The Tigers are 4-12 against Quad 1 and have played 22 games against Quads 1-2. Auburn lost 72-62 to Tennessee in the SEC tournament. Is there an argument with Miami worth having

San Diego State (20-10, 14-6 MWC) 

Resume: KenPom 47, Net 48. The Aztecs have re-emerged on the bubble despite losses in four of their last six games. San Diego State needs to have a deeper run than New Mexico in the MWC tournament. 

Seton Hall (21-11, 10-10 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom 51, Net 55. The Pirates beat Creighton 72-61 in the Big East tournament on Thursday. Seton Hall still has a 1-5 record against Quad 1 might be too much to overcome without a deep run in the Big East tournament.

Indiana (18-14, 9-11 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 44, Net 41. The Hoosiers lost for the second time to Northwestern in a 74-61 stunner in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. That likely knocks the Hoosiers out of the tournament field. 

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