March Madness bracket predictions 3.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2026 NCAA Tournament

It's a mini Final Four weekend of sorts. 

Arizona (23-2) travels to Houston (23-2) at 3 p.m. on ABC in a blockbuster Big 12 showdown. Both teams project as No. 1 seeds for now – but considering the Big 12 grind it will be tough to get there. It's only the sixth meeting between the schools. 

That is the appetizer for Michigan (24-1) vs. Duke (23-2) in the Edward Jones Capital Showcase in Washington D.C. at 6:30 p.m. The schools haven't met since 2013. Will this be a national championship game preview – like it was in 1991-92? 

USC, TCU, San Diego State and Santa Clara are our last four teams in. Missouri, Ohio State, New Mexico and Seton Hall are our first four teams out. 

This year's Final Four is April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. 

Moved In: Appalachian State, Hawai'i, High Point, South Florida, TCU, Utah Tech 

Moved out: Cal, Troy, Tulsa, UC-Irvine, Utah Valley, Winthrop 

Who is in our latest Field of 68? A closer look: 

* - Projected automatic bid
** - Last four in 

NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections

No. 1 Seeds

*Michigan (24-1, 14-1 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 1, Net 1. The Wolverines average 90.6 points per game and are 9-0 in Quad 1 ahead of a blockbuster week with matchups against Purdue and Duke. 

*Duke (23-2, 12-1 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom: 2, Net: 2. Cameron Boozer (22.8 ppg.) ranks fourth in the nation in scoring – and the Blue Devils beat Clemson 67-54 on Saturday. Duke-Michigan is the marquee matchup of the week. 

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*Arizona (23-2, 10-2 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 3, Net 3. The Wildcats shot 10 of 31 (32.5%) from three-point range in losses to Kansas and Texas Tech. BYU and AJ Dybantsa visits Arizona on Wednesday, before that road trip to Houston on Saturday. 

Houston (23-2, 11-1 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 4. Houston bumps UConn off the No. 1 line for now. The Cougars' next three games are against Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas. Houston ranks second in the nation in scoring defense (61.3 ppg.) under Kelvin Sampson. 

No. 2 Seeds

*UConn (24-2, 14-1 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 10. The Huskies are 6-2 in Quad 1 ahead of matchups against Creighton and Villanova this week. Dan Hurley has the Huskies squarely in the hunt for a No. 1 seed. 

Iowa State (22-3, 9-3 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom: 7, Net: 8. The Cyclones face BYU and Houston this week – which offers more chances to improve on a 6-3 record in Quad 1. Guard Tamin Lipsey leads the Big 12 with 2.3 steals per game. 

Purdue (21-4, 11-3 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 8, Net: 5. Purdue is hot. The Boilermakers are 8-4 in Quad 1, have four seniors averaging double figures led by Braden Smith (14.7 ppg.) and play their next three games at home against Michigan, Indiana and Michigan State. 

Illinois (21-5, 12-3 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 7. The Illini bounced back from overtime losses against Michigan State and Wisconsin with a 71-51 victory against Indiana. A West Coast swing at USC and UCLA is next. Avoiding a slip-up will be key to stay on this line.

No. 3 Seeds 

Nebraska (22-3, 11-3  Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 11, Net: 11. Pryce Sandfort scored 29 points against Northwestern on Saturday – his fourth game with at least six 3-pointers. A road trip to Iowa on Tuesday is the next test. 

*Florida (19-6, 10-2 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 9. The Gators remain the top team in the SEC after an impressive 92-83 victory against Kentucky on Saturday. Florida is 8-5 against Quad 1 opponents. 

Kansas (19-6, 9-3 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 15, Net 14. The Jayhawks split top-five matchups against Arizona and Iowa State – which means they stay on this line for another week. Freshman Darryn Peterson had 10 points in 24 minutes in the 74-56 loss to the Cyclones on Saturday. 

Texas Tech (19-6, 9-3) 

Resume: KenPom 16, Net 16. The Red Raiders moved up after the 78-75 overtime victory at Arizona. Texas Tech has an almost-identical resume to Kansas with a 7-6 record against Quad 1 and no losses in Quads 2-4. 

No. 4 seeds

Gonzaga (25-2, 13-1 West Coast) 

Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 6. Gonzaga easily could be a No. 3 seed. Forward Graham Ike averages 26 points in the Bulldogs' last five games. That included a 21-point, 15-rebound performance in the 94-86 victory against Santa Clara on Saturday. 

Michigan State (20-5, 10-4 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom: 13, Net: 15. The Spartans are at a critical point in the season under Tom Izzo after losing three of four games. Home games against UCLA and Ohio State are a chance to get right. Three of Michigan State's last four games are at Purdue, Indiana and Michigan. 

Virginia (22-3, 11-2 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 20, Net 19. The Cavaliers have won six in a row, including a random neutral-site 70-66 victory against the Big Ten's Ohio State on Saturday. Virginia faces Georgia Tech and Miami this week. No peeking at the Feb. 28 matchup against Duke, right? 

Vanderbilt (21-4, 8-4 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 12, Net 13. The Commodores swept Auburn and Texas A&M last week. Guard Tyler Tanner – who ranks second in the SEC with 5.4 assists per game – had just four points in a 82-69 victory against Texas A&M on Saturday. 

No. 5 seeds

Alabama (18-7, 8-4 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 20, Net 23. Nate Oats has the Crimson Tide back on track. Alabama averages 94.5 points per game in its last four victories heading into Wednesday's matchup against Arkansas. 

Arkansas (19-6, 9-3 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 17, Net 18. The Razorbacks are hot, too. Arkansas averages 89 points per game in its last three victories. Darius Acuff averaged 27.7 points in those three wins, including 31 points on seven 3-pointers in a 88-75 victory against Auburn on Saturday. 

St. John's (20-5, 13-1 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom 21, Net 24. Zuby Ejiofor averages 18.2 points and 7.2 rebounds in St. John's last five games. St. John's has won 11 straight games heading into a Wednesday matchup against Marquette. 

Louisville (19-6, 9-4 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 19, Net 17. Louisville is 6-6 against Quad 1 – the second-most Quad 1 victories for an ACC school behind Duke. The Cardinals have won five in a row heading Tuesday's road trip to SMU. 

No. 6 seeds

BYU (19-6, 7-5 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 22, Net 18. The Cougars snapped a four-game losing streak with victories against Baylor and Colorado last week. Dybantsa is averaging 30 points per game in the last four games, but the Cougars lost third-leading scorer Richie Saunders (18 ppg) to a torn ACL.

North Carolina (20-5, 8-4 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 28, Net 25. Caleb Wilson – who averages 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds – suffered a fractured left hand and is out indefinitely. The Tar Heels have road games at NC State and Syracuse this week before a brutal end-of-season stretch in ACC play.

Tennessee (18-7, 8-4 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 19, Net 22. The Volunteers are 4-7 in Quad 1 but do not have a loss in Quads 2-4. A road trip to Vanderbilt on Saturday should be exciting. Tennessee has lost two of the last three at Vanderbilt. 

Kentucky (17-8, 8-4 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 27, Net 28. Forward Otega Oweh averaged 20.2 points and five rebounds in Kentucky's last five games. The Wildcats are 5-7 against Quad 1 opponents and have just one Quad 2 loss. 

No. 7 seeds 

Saint Louis (24-1, 12-0 Atlantic 10) 

Resume: KenPom 23, Net 17. The Billikins are inching toward a school record in single-season wins, which was set in 2012-13 with a 28-7 season. That team lost in the second round. 

Wisconsin (18-7, 10-4 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 32, Net 43. Since Jan. 10, the Badgers have logged victories against Michigan, Illinois and Michigan State. Is this too low? Wisconsin travels to Ohio State on Tuesday. 

Villanova (20-5, 9-3 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom 26, Net 30. The Wildcats reached the 20-win mark and are trending upward at the right time. A 2-4 record against Quad 1 could be better, and matchups with Xavier and UConn this week are up next. 

*Utah State (22-3, 13-2 MWC)

Resume: KenPom 24, Net 23. The Aggies are 8-2 in Quads 1-2, and they made a statement with a 99-75 victory against Memphis on Saturday. Coach Jerrod Calhoun is 48-11 in his second season with the program. 

No. 8 seeds 

Clemson (20-6, 10-3 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 34, Net 32. The Tigers slipped down the ACC pecking order after losses to Virginia Tech and Duke. Clemson was 11 of 40 (27.5%) from 3-point range in the two losses. 

Iowa (18-7, 8-6 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 25, Net 27. The Hawkeyes have fluctuated the last two weeks and are coming off losses to Maryland and Purdue. A Tuesday matchup against Nebraska is a chance to improve a 2-5 record in Quad 1. 

NC State (18-8, 9-4 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 31, Net 29. Losses to Louisville and Miami have dropped the Wolfpack in the seedings, and it won't get easier this week against North Carolina on Tuesday or Virginia on Feb. 24. 

Auburn (14-11, 5-7 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 33, Net 34. The Tigers have a great strength of schedule, but they are still 3-7 against Top 25 teams. This is a tenuous hold heading into matchups against Mississippi State and Kentucky this week. 

Rest of the field ... 

No. 9 seeds 

SMU (17-8, 6-6 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 38, Net 36.

Indiana (17-9, 8-7 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 36, Net 31.

Texas (16-9, 7-5 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 30, Net 37.

Miami, Fla. (20-5, 9-3 ACC) 

Resume: KenPom 37, Net 35. 

No. 10 seeds 

Saint Mary's (23-4, 12-2 West Coast) 

Resume: KenPom 29, Net 26. 

Texas A&M (17-8, 7-5 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 33, Net 43. 

UCLA (17-8, 9-5 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 42, Net 40.

*Miami, Ohio (25-0, 12-0 MAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 84, Net: 50. 

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No. 11 seeds

Georgia (17-8, 5-7 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom: 43, Net: 39. 

UCF (17-6, 6-6 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 52, Net 49.

**USC (18-7, 7-7 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 49, Net 48. 

**TCU (16-9, 6-6 Big 12) 

Resume: KenPom 50, Net 45.

**San Diego State (18-6, 12-2 MWC)

Resume: KenPom 41, Net 41.

**Santa Clara (22-6, 13-2 West Coast) 

Resume: KenPom 39, Net 42. 

No. 12 seeds

*South Florida (18-8, 10-3 American) 

Resume: KenPom: 59, Net: 57. 

*Belmont (23-4, 13-3 MVC) 

Resume: KenPom 60, Net: 61. 

*Yale (20-4, 8-2 Ivy) 

Resume: KenPom: 75, Net: 65.  

*Liberty (22-3, 14-0 Conference USA) 

Resume: KenPom: 90, Net: 75. 

No. 13 seeds

*Stephen F. Austin (23-3, 16-1 Southland) 

Resume: Net: 86, KenPom: 79.

*UNC-Wilmington (22-4, 11-2 CAA) 

Resume: KenPom: 108, Net: 97.

*High Point (24-4, 12-1 Big South) 

Resume: KenPom: 90, Net: 75. 

*Hawai'i (18-6, 10-4 Big West) 

Resume: KenPom: 104, Net: 99. 

No. 14 seeds

*Portland State (17-7, 11-2 Big Sky) 

Resume: KenPom: 141, Net: 129.

*North Dakota State (21-6, 11-1 Summit) 

Resume: KenPom: 123, Net: 123.

*ETSU (19-8, 11-3 Southern) 

Resume: KenPom: 139, Net: 127. 

*Austin Peay (19-6, 13-1 Atlantic Sun) 

Resume: KenPom: 142, Net: 134.

No. 15 seeds 

*Navy (21-6, 13-1 Patriot) 

Resume: KenPom: 156, Net: 151.

*Wright State (17-10, 12-4 Horizon) 

Resume: KenPom: 145, Net: 142. 

*Utah Tech (16-11, 9-4 WAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 178, Net: 158. 

*Appalachian State (18-10, 10-5 Sun Belt) 

Resume: KenPom: 179, Net: 184.

No. 16 seeds

*UT-Martin (20-7, 12-4 OVC) 

Resume: KenPom: 198, Net: 179. 

*Merrimack (18-9, 14-2 MAAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 163, Net: 188. 

**Long Island (17-9, 11-2 Northeast) 

Resume: KenPom: 210, Net: 195. 

**Bethune-Cookman (13-12, 10-2 SWAC)

Resume: KenPom: 228, Net: 250. 

**UMBC (16-8, 9-2 America East) 

Resume: KenPom: 237, Net: 244. 

**Morgan State (10-13, 6-2 MEAC) 

Resume: KenPom: 352, Net: 353. 

Bubble watch 

Missouri (17-8, 7-5 SEC) 

Resume: KenPom 54, Net 66. What weighs more: three Quad 1 victories or four Quad 2 losses? It's a huge week for Missouri with matchups against Vanderbilt and Arkansas. 

Ohio State (16-9, 8-6 Big Ten) 

Resume: KenPom 40, Net 38. Ohio State beat USC 89-82 on Feb. 11, but the Trojans have two Quad 1 victories. The Buckeyes are still searching for their first one. That could be the difference for the last Big Ten team. 

New Mexico (19-6, 10-4 MWC) 

Resume: KenPom 48, Net 45. The Lobos do not have much margin for error, and they still have matchups with San Diego State (Feb. 28) and Utah State (March 7). 

Seton Hall (17-8, 7-7 Big East) 

Resume: KenPom 48, Net 51. The Pirates are still on the outside looking in despite a .500 record in Big East play. Can they upset either UConn (Feb. 28) or St. John's (March 6)?