March Madness bracket 2026: Upset predictions, sleepers, Final Four pick in West Region

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Do you know the way to San Jose?

Yeah, it runs through Portland or San Diego – and eventually through the Arizona Wildcats.

That Arizona would be a No. 1 seed in the West Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament could have been called on about Dec. 15. They were that good. And they were the only team that good that wanted to open its NCAA Tournament in this part of the country.

The bracket suggests Arizona advancement to the Final Four – after going through some challenging games in the West Sweet 16 at San Jose’s SAP Center is just to the Earthly side of inevitable, but even if that turns out to be so, there will be no region of the four in March Madness that will be as entertaining.

Nine of the nation’s top 30 scoring offenses are located in the West.

For the next couple weeks, anyway.

MARCH MADNESS HQ: Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Printable bracket 

All-West Region Team

G – Jaden Bradley, Arizona

G – AJ Dybantsa, BYU

G – Nick Boyd, Wisconsin

G – Braden Smith, Purdue

F – Darius Acuff, Arkansas

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Boozer Player of the Year | Lloyd Coach of the Year

Best West Region First Round game

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 High Point

High Point enters this game with the nation’s longest active winning streak. Did you know that? Yep, 14 games. High Point’s nickname is the Panthers. You don’t need me to tell you the school is in North Carolina, right?

You should know all this in advance because you’re going to want to remember High Point by the time this game ends. It averages 90 points a game. They do this with no one getting more than Terry Anderson’s 16 points per game. Nine players average at least 13 minutes. Coach Flynn Clayman has a style, and it works.

Wisconsin’s Greg Gard had a style, too, but he came to realize the game had changed from the Bo Ryan days and began using a more energized approach on offense. And then he got Nick Boyd to transfer in to join established star guard John Blackwell, and that energized approach truly ignited. True, the Badgers “only” averaged 83 points per game.

Yeah, only. They can go.

SN EXPERT BRACKETS: DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)

Silly seed, indeed

Missouri is the No. 10 seed in the region.

They will play their first-round game against No. 7 seed Miami in St. Louis at the Enterprise Center.

It doesn’t take a Google search or some AI chat function to recognize St. Louis in Missouri.

This didn’t have to happen. There are three other No. 10 seeds: UCF, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara. You didn’t need an A in Geography to recognize none of those is particularly close to St. Louis.

I’ve made the drive between Mizzou and St. Lou.

It’s too close for a 10.

Upset special

No. 10 Missouri over No. 7 Miami

We should give Missouri credit for being a fine basketball team that earned some tremendous victories: at Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida. And people might need to be reminded that it’s not just the home crowd advantage when the Tigers take out the Hurricanes.

Mark Mitchell is among the most difficult frontcourt players to defend. He is 6-9, 230, with an almost unfair variety of post moves. He put 32 points on Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. He put 32 on Arkansas in the final game of the regular season.

Neither is elite at frontcourt defense, but the Hurricanes’ best defense is played on the perimeter, so they could have some issues.

This is not a great Missouri team, but they have greatness in them. It’s coming out in this game.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 115 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Best Potential Game

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Arkansas

There should be a rule passed that no upsets are allowed in these two teams’ first-round games, because we all deserve the chance to see them share the court.

If it happens, Badgers vs. Hogs will be the best game of the tournament.

As it was when John Beilein’s Michigan faced Brad Underwood’s Oklahoma State in 2017 – and put up a combined 183 points – Arkansas-Wisconsin would sizzle from end-to-end from beginning to end. Can Wisconsin stop Darius Acuff? No, who has? Can Arkansas stop Nick Boyd? No, who has? And that’s the point.

Wherever you are if this game happens, even if it’s in an arena for another March Madness game, stop what you’re doing and watch. You will not regret it.

And if either team loses in a first-round upset, stop what you’re doing and weep.

We will all be the worse for it.

DECOURCY: Ranking the NCAA teams 1-68

Sleeper team

No. 6 BYU

Are they really a sleeper if the country’s best all-around player is on the team?

Because that’s really who AJ Dybantsa is: scorer, shooter, passer, defender, teammate. Elite in four of those five categories. The shooting is fine for now, will join the others in time.

BYU can make a run in this. They probably wouldn’t have qualified as a sleeper if 18-point scorer Richie Saunders hadn’t been lost for the season with a knee injury, but this is their situation.

Now they’re down to two guys who can get them 30 in a game: Dybantsa (who did it seven times) and Robert Wright (who did it twice).

BYU’s defense is problematic, and Saunders did not make an enormous difference in that, so a national title probably was beyond the Cougars’ reach all along. But when you can score like this, you’ve got a chance, even if advancing means somehow conquering Gonzaga.

West Region Final Four pick

Arizona

According to the committee’s seed list, the West adds up as the weakest region of the four.

It’s almost always that way. Because so much of the bracketing and placement depends upon geography, the fact there are more programs in the other regions of the country means more of the best ones will be placed in the East, South or Midwest.

Arizona didn’t need the “easiest” bracket to get to Indianapolis. They’re the best team in the country, a statement that might always have been true but certainly feels so now that both Michigan and Duke are dealing with damaging injuries.

Presuming Arizona advances to the Sweet 16, they’d likely play against the No. 48 defense (Arkansas) or No. 51 (Wisconsin). In the Elite Eight, they might play a Purdue team that ranks 36th on D.

Arizona ranks in the top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It’s a team with size and power, speed and quickness, skill and character. There’s no area of the game in which the Wildcats do not excel. Does that guarantee a championship, or even an escape from the West? It does not.

It does give them a better chance than everyone else.

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