March Madness bracket 2026: Upset predictions, sleepers, Final Four pick in East Region

The title of 'headliner' in the East Region isn't up for debate.

No. 1 overall seed Duke rides Naismith National Player of the Year frontrunner Cameron Boozer into the NCAA Tournament, and all eyes will be on the Blue Devils as they attempt to qualify for a third Final Four under fifth-year head coach Jon Scheyer.

There's more to the East than Boozer and his supporting cast, however.

Big East champion St. John's feels criminally underseeded at No. 5, so Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor and legendary coach Rick Pitino will have plenty of motivation when the ball is tipped. Kansas injury enigma Darryn Peterson will also be a focal point as he attempts to change some of the narrative that surrounds him and lead the Jayhawks on a deep tournament run.

The region also includes a Final Four-quality UConn group and some interesting sleeper picks such as UCLA and TCU. Northern Iowa has a foot built for a slipper, and Michigan State feels like a dark-horse title contender.

Below is a look at the key players and teams that comprise the deep and talented East region, along with a few predictions for how things may shake out.

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All-East Region Team

F – Cameron Boozer, Duke

F – Zuby Ejiofor, St. John's

C – Tarris Reed Jr, UConn

G –  Darryn Peterson, Kansas 

G – Jeremy Fears Jr, Michigan State

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Best East Region first-round game

No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 10 UCF

Cronin's team enters the tournament playing much better basketball than it did two months ago and will likely be favored against UCF. That said, the Knights possess the offensive firepower to test UCLA. If 7-foot-2 center John Bol is able to stay out of foul trouble and protect the rim, we could be set up for a low-scoring dogfight in Philly. 

Silly Seed, Indeed

The Big East wasn't the deepest league in the country by any stretch this season, but putting the league's champion on the No. 5 line seems like a stretch. St. John's is as hot as any team on Earth, having won 19 of its last 20 games. They were also ranked No. 13 in the final AP poll.

Then there's the fact that the Johnnies have already beaten UConn, the No. 2 seed in the East, twice this season. That's not to suggest St. John's should be seeded above UConn, but there certainly isn't as much room between the two teams as the committee seems to believe.

The seeding isn't just unfair to the Red Storm; it's a tough break for opponent Northern Iowa, who now has to game plan for the Big East Player of the Year in forward Zuby Ejiofor and the sport's best coach in Rick Pitino.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

Upset Special

No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville

South Florida arrives in the tournament having won 11 straight games and energized by securing its first March Madness appearance since 2012. There are few teams in the country hotter than the Bulls, who could present problems for a Louisville team that hasn't exactly been a portrait of consistency this season.

The Cardinals will be hampered by an injury to star guard Mikel Brown Jr., who missed the ACC tournament and may or may not play against the Bulls. There's no telling if Brown will be 100% even if he's on the floor, which is definitely a concern for a Louisville squad that went 3-3 down the stretch and looked a bit lost on the offensive end without its star. Louisville also ranks among the nation's leaders in 3-point attempts per game, so a cold shooting night could create some nervy moments.

Best Potential Game

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Kansas

If chalk holds, we could be staring down a matchup between a pair of top-3 NBA Draft picks on the second weekend, as Kansas' Darryn Peterson and Duke's Cameron Boozer are on  a collision course. The oft-injured Peterson missed the teams' first meeting this season, but he seems to have put his nagging issues behind him and would be poised to step onto the big stage this time around.

The case can be made that either Peterson or Boozer is the best player available in this year's draft, and finally seeing them go head-to-head would create a buzz that transcends college hoops.

There's more to like about this potential matchup, however. Duke won the first contest relatively comfortably, but Peterson's presence won't be the only difference this time around. The Blue Devils will be without guard Caleb Foster and could also be missing center Patrick Ngongba II. Kansas is a solid defensive team, and defensive-minded center Flory Bidunga is one of the few players in this tournament who could match Boozer from a length-and-athleticism standpoint.

Sleeper Team

This TCU squad is the definition of a sleeper. The Horned Frogs looked to be one of the Big 12's worst teams in the preseason.

Then they played the games.

Jamie Dixon's group has been at its best against elite competition, having beaten highly seeded NCAA Tournament teams Florida, Iowa State, and Texas Tech. They also defeated Wisconsin and took juggernaut Michigan down to the wire before falling just short.

If being battle-tested is worth anything, TCU has that working in its favor, having survived a bear of a Big 12 slate. The Horned Frogs have to be thrilled to get a break from playing Big 12 competition and are better for having gone through the grind of the nation's best league. 

Shot-blocking machine David Punch leads a defensive-minded squad that could shorten games and help embrace low-scoring affairs against basically anyone. Is TCU inconsistent? Sure, but the Frogs also capable of making a deep run, as their depth and balanced attack could make up for the fact that the roster lacks true star power. A run to the second weekend would take a little bit of luck, sure, but stranger things have happened. 

South Region Final Four pick

Many hail Michigan State's Tom Izzo as some kind of March magician. Critics fairly point out that such a moniker is based on old news, however, seeing as the program hasn't been to the Final Four since 2018 and has only escaped the first weekend once since that appearance.

It feels like this month is as good a time as any to squash that criticism.

Guard play is key in the tournament, however, and there aren't many teams that have a better lead man in that area than the Spartans, who could ride First-Team All-Big Ten selection Jeremy Fears Jr. to a deep run. Steady double-double machine Jaxon Kohler, as well as hyper-athletic wing Coen Carr, give Michigan State a formidable paint presence and make it a threat to pull a couple upsets and surge into the event's third weekend.

Yes, Duke will be the favorite to emerge from the East, but injuries have weakened the Blue Devils' roster. Yes, Michigan State will have to get through UConn to make it to Indianapolis, but it's not as though the Huskies have looked invincible of late, limping into the tournament having gone 2-2 in their last four Big East games.

Izzo cuts down the regional nets.