Arkansas or Hawaii? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket

The bracket for the 2026 men's NCAA Tournament has been set, and No. 4 Arkansas will open against No. 13 Hawaii in the first round.

Arkansas (26-8, 13-5 SEC) is riding a five-game win streak. In the SEC conference tournament, the Razorbacks advanced to the championship game against Vanderbilt, winning 86-75 to clinch an automatic NCAA Tournament bid. Arkansas was likely headed for a lower seed but earned a boost after an impressive SEC tournament run.

Hawaii (24-8, 14-6 Big West) earned an automatic bid by winning the Big West conference tournament. The Rainbow Warriors have won back-to-back games and six of their last seven. Hawaii’s biggest challenge will be its weaker resume compared to Arkansas, but the team played Oregon and Arizona State close earlier in the season, and March is when wild things happen.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between No. 4 Arkansas and No. 13 Hawaii, including metrics, rankings, key players, season breakdowns, and more.

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Arkansas vs. Hawaii odds

Arkansas vs. Hawaii will be played on Thursday, March 19. Arkansas opened as the heavy favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Razorbacks are the SEC Tournament champions, while Hawaii is playing in its first NCAA Tournament since 2002.

• Odds: Arkansas -15.5
• Date: Thursday, March 19
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS
• Arena: Moda Center in Portland, Oregon 

WATCH: No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Hawaii LIVE on TBS with DIRECTV

Arkansas (26-8, 13-5 in SEC)

AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer grab the most headlines, but Darius Acuff is right up there with them as one of the best freshmen in the country. Can he help Arkansas take the next step and play until April?

Acuff is the SEC’s Player of the Year after averaging more than 22 points per game, and he showed an ability to take over games for the Razorbacks. After proving he’s past a recent ankle injury by leading this team to an SEC Tournament title, Acuff will make life difficult for opposing defenses in the NCAA Tournament.

It takes more than one star freshman to win big. How about two? Meleek Thomas quietly also had a nice year for John Calipari’s squad, shooting close to 42 percent from 3-point range. Arkansas shoots better than 38 percent from deep and averages about 90 points per game, but this team doesn’t rely heavily on 3s and doesn’t shoot many per game, relative to the rest of the country. Acuff can score from anywhere on the floor, while Billy Richmond III, Trevon Brazile and D.J. Wagner are among Arkansas’ secondary scoring options.

Arkansas’ perimeter defense has done a fine job of limiting opponents from deep, but the Razorbacks’ interior defense is softer. Teams are shooting better than 54 percent on 2-point shots, so the size of Malique Ewin and Nick Pringle hasn’t always translated to defensive success close to the basket.

Calipari’s team is by no means a defensive stalwart, and it could very well be the defense that keeps Arkansas from going deeper than last year’s run to the Sweet 16. With an offense capable of approaching 100 points on any given night, however, there might not be a game the Razorbacks don’t believe they can win. -Dan Treacy

• NET ranking: 16th
• KenPom ranking: 15th
• Quad 1 record: 8-8
• Quad 2 record: 8-0
• Quad 3 record: 4-0
• Quad 4 record: 6-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 6th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 47th

Key players

Darius Acuff, G, Fr. (6-3, 190): 22.7 ppg, 6.4 apg, 43.7% 3-pt

Meleek Thomas, G, Fr. (6-5, 185): 15.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 42.5% 3-pt

Trevon Brazile, F, Sr. (6-9, 215): 13.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.6 bpg

Billy Richmond III, F, So. (6-5, 205): 10.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.0 apg

D.J. Wagner, G, Jr. (6-3, 175): 7.5 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.3 apg

Hawaii (24-8, 14-6 in Big West)

Hawaii is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016, when the Rainbow Warriors knocked off California in the opening round. Could another upset be in the cards?

The metrics don’t absolutely love this Hawaii team, and its offense is the reason why. The Rainbow Warriors average close to 80 points per game, but they don’t shoot well at all, ranking in the bottom 60 in the country from 3-point range, and they commit a concerning 13.5 turnovers per game. Offensive rebounding has also been a struggle despite plenty of success rebounding on the other end.

More often than not, upsets happen early in the NCAA Tournament because a defensive-minded team takes an opponent out of its rhythm. Hawaii can at least do that. The Rainbow Warriors’ defense ranks 42nd in efficiency, and opponents are averaging less than 70 points per game despite this team playing at such a fast pace. Hawaii is holding opponents to just 30.4 percent from 3-point range and 41.1 percent from the field.

Hawaii has plenty of capable rebounders in its rotation, including leading scorer Isaac Johnson. Johnson, a Utah State transfer who started at Oregon, is coming off a 22-point performance with three blocks in the Rainbow Warriors’ Big West title game win.

This Hawaii team won’t be able to slow the game down in the NCAA Tournament, but its defense should be able to match up with anyone, and its experience does as well. The Rainbow Warriors have yet to prove their offense can do the same, and without some 3-point luck, the path to a win is narrow. -Dan Treacy

• NET ranking: 101st
• KenPom ranking: 107th
• Quad 1 record: 0-0
• Quad 2 record: 0-4
• Quad 3 record: 8-2
• Quad 4 record: 14-2
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 207th
• Defensive efficiency ranking: 42nd

Key players

Isaac Johnson, C, Sr. (7-0, 225): 14.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.1 bpg

Dre Bullock, G, Sr. (6-6, 195): 13.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.7 spg

Harry Rouhliadeff, F, Sr. (6-9, 220): 10.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.4 apg

Hunter Erickson, G, Sr. (6-3, 194): 8.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.8 apg

Gytis Nemeiksa, F, Sr. (6-7, 220): 9.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.0 apg

SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year

Arkansas vs. Hawaii prediction

March Madness gets its name because anything can happen, and it has been proven that any team can win a game in the tournament, with two No. 16 seeds having toppled No. 1 seeds. Still, the deck is stacked against Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors opened as 15.5-point underdogs, but are coming off winning the Big West conference championship and riding a two-game winning streak. 

History of No. 4 vs. 13 matchups in NCAA Tournament

Only 23 No. 13 seeds have upset four seeds since 1985 for a 23-137 record overall. 2025 didn't see any No. 13 seeds pull off an upset, but you don't have to go much further back to find the last time it happened. No. 13 Oakland knocked off No. 4 Kentucky. 

Here's a look back at all the 13-over-4 upsets since 2010:

Dan Treacy contibuted to this article