Kentucky Derby horses 2025: Fast facts to know before you pick a winner for Triple Crown race

The 2025 Kentucky Derby, the 151st edition of horse racing's first Triple Crown leg, will be contested Saturday, May 3 (post time 6:57 p.m. ET, NBC). Twenty horses are again set to compete in the latest "Run For the Roses" this year, with finishing first in 1 1/4 miles separating them from immortality.

After Mystik Dan won at 20-1 closing odds in the 2024 Derby, the door remains open for a a third consecutive upset. This year, Journalism is the favorite, followed by Sovereignity.

Before you make your final Kentucky Derby picks for win, place, and show in 2025, here's a look at the odds, favorites, and long shots and how history, personnel, and conditions can hurt or help each horse:

MORE: Complete betting guide for the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby post positions, morning line odds for 2025

Here are the results and initial betting lines for the field from Churchill Downs after the post-position draw last week. These will be updated closer to the post time on Saturday, with the latest morning line odds from KentuckyDerby.com.

Which Kentucky Derby contenders have the best track record?

1. Journalism

After finishing third in his shorter-distance debut, Journalism has rolled to four impressive wins in California, including twice at Santa Anita, the 2025 San Felipe and the track's eponymous Derby. Journalism has looked smooth in workouts, guided well by trainer Michael McCarthy and consistent jockey Umberto Rispoli.

2. Sovereignty

Journalism's clear top challenger did finish second at the Florida Derby in late March, but that was after winning at Gulfstream Park's Fountain of Youth Derby earlier that month. Sovereignty also lived up to its royal name with victory at Churchill Downs in October.

His trainer, Bill Mott, won the 2019 Kentucky Derby with Country House. Sovereignty also will be reunited with jockey Junior Alvarado, who wasn't aboard for the Florida Derby.

3. Sandman

Sandman is an experienced racer with good pedigree, having been sired by Tapit. He also only three wins in eight starts, but also has a place and a show. Those wins also came in two of his last races at Oaklawn, most recently prevailing in the Arkansas Derby in late March. Sandman is trained by Mark E. Casse, who led War of Will to victories at the Preakness and Belmont in 2019. Jockey Jose Ortiz also has won each of the other two legs once, riding Early Voting and Tapwrit.

Which trainers can you trust most in the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

1. Bob Baffert

Baffert, 72, will try to win his record seventh Kentucky Derby coming off a three-year suspension from entering a horse at Churchill Downs. As it is the case for most years, he has two horses, Citizen Bull from No. 1 and Rodriguez from No. 4.

Baffert's last Derby winner was Authentic in 2020. He will try to make amends for the 2021 disaster with Medina Spirit, disqualified from victory for failing a drug test. Baffert always prepares his horses well for the Derby and can't once again ruled out for redemption even without one of the favorites.

2. Todd Pletcher

Pletcher has two Derby wins to his credit, 2010 with Super Saver and 2017 with Always Dreaming. He also has won the Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Oaks four times each. He will attempt the hat trick with Grande. Pletcher has had multiple entries at once at the Derby before and can get the most out of being two posts outside of Journalism.

3. Kenneth McPeek

McPeek has a career Triple Crown, with wins at Belmont (Sarava, 2002), Preakness (Swiss Skydvier, 2020) and the Derby (Mystik Dan, 2024). Last year, McPeek became the first trainer in 72 years to sweep the Derby and Oaks. This year, he's been charged with trying to pull off a surprise with Render Judgment.

MORE: All-time Kentucky Derby records

Which jockeys can you trust most at the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

1. John R. Velazquez

Velazquez leads the entire field with three Derby wins, all coming in the past 14 years. He did it with three trainers, including Baffert and Pletcher, coming through with Authenitc, Always Dreaming His first win came mounted on Animal Kingdom in 2011 for H. Graham Moton. He also has two Belmonts and a Preakness to his credit. Grande might have a grand advantage if the race is close.

2. Mike E. Smith

Smith is tied with many others with his Derby wins, with Giacomo in 2005 and Justify, Baffert's Triple Crown-winning horse from 2018. With those three wins on Justify, he has 7 wins total from the three legs. He has a lot of experience and can come through for Baffert again on Rodriguez.

3. Brian Hernandez Jr.

Hernandez will be riding Burnham Square after winning with Mystik Dan last year. At only 39, he's already had a prolific 22-year career. He can make a difference in 2025 with his work fighting off Journalism and Grande on either side of his horse.

Which horses are the best long-shot picks to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

1. Grande

Pletcher and Velazquez is a strong 1-2 punch behind this colt sired by Curlin, the 2007 American Horse of the year. Favorable experiences at Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park set up a good shot at rising up to take the Derby.

2. American Promise

This is the entry for training legend D. Wayne Lukas, who's looking for his fifth Derby at age 89 but hasn't had a horse take the race in the 2000s. He did get back on the Triple Crown board, however, with Seize the Gray taking last year's Preakness. The promise is there in the pedigree, as American Promise was sired by Justify. This horse has only two wins, but the momentum is there after one in came the most recent start at the Virginia Derby.

3. Render Judgment

The horse owned by the family of late country superstar Toby Keith has looked good in warmups, right along with Burnham Square. McPeek should be feeling the momentum of 2024 and don't be surprised if this horse can overachieve.

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Which post position is the most advantageous?

In Kentucky Derby history, no post position has produced more winners than No. 5, which has had 10 over 150 years. No. 10 comes in second with nine winners. No. 5 is something promising for American Promise, positioned where Always Dreaming won eight years ago, California Chrome won in '14 and Audible placed in '18. No. 10 is in a drought, as it's been 20 years since a horse won from there (Giacomo in '05).

Next in line is post position No. 8, with nine winners, including Mage in 2023, Mine That Bird in '09, and Barbaro in '06. In 2018, Justify became the lucky seventh horse to win from No. 7, following Street Sense in, yep, you guessed it, 2007. Four years ago, Medina Spirit had thought it won from No. 8, but Mandaloun ended up prevailing from No. 7. That's inspiring for Journalism and Luxor Cafe.

Being near the rail has been bad news of late. It's been 39 years since Ferdinand won from No. 1 and 46 years since Affirmed won from No. 2. This year, Nos. 1 and 2 are tough breaks for Citizen Bull and Neoequos. Sierra Leone almost did it last year, but lost to Mystik Dan from the No. 3.

The sweet spot in recent years has been anywhere outside No. 12. By entering the gate late, Rich Strike improbably won from No. 21 in 2022. In reverse order back to 2008, such other winners include Nyquist (No. 13), American Pharoah (No. 18), Orb (No. 16), I'll Have Another (No. 19), Animal Kingdom (No. 16), and Big Brown (No. 20).

Following that before Rich Strike, Country House won from No. 20 in 2019 and Authentic took the Derby from No. 18 in 2020. The one exception is No. 17, which has never produced a Derby winner in 46 tries. That could mean good night for Sandman's rather good chances this year.

Kentucky Derby 2025 picks

Here is the projected order of finish at the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

• Win: Grande
• Place: Journalism
• Show: Sandman

Journalism will get get nipped inside in another close finish, while Sandman burst through the dirt to show. A fast crowd with Journalism inside will make it interesting. with No. 10 edging No. 8. Sandman, at No. 17 is also well positioned between Render Judgment and Sovereignty.