Kentucky Derby 2025: Odds to win, sleepers, top long-shot picks and best post positions

The countdown to the Kentucky Derby is on, and horse racing fans and bettors alike have started researching the field for the 151st Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 3. 

The top 3-year-old horses on the planet will compete at the annual Churchill Downs event, widely considered the most popular and prestigious race in the sport. 

It will be hard for this year's event to match the dramatics of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone had an epic photo finish, one that required a review lasting several minutes before officials ultimately announced Mystik Dan as the victor. The Kentucky colt entered last year's event with 20-to-1 odds.

MORE: How much are tickets for the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

Who will win the first leg of the Triple Crown in 2025? Can Journalism — the hottest horse in the world — win his fifth race in a row? Are Sandman and Sovereignty the top challengers in the field? What's the best sleeper bet?

You've got questions, and the Sporting News has answers. Let's take a look at FanDuel Racing's current outright win odds and highlight the best bets, top sleepers and highest-value long shots to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. 

Kentucky Derby 2025: Odds to win

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing. Post positions will be added on Saturday evening after the draw. 

Kentucky Derby 2025: Best bets

The clear favorites in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field are Journalism (3-1), Sandman (8-1) and Sovereignty (8-1). Rodriguez and Tappan Street both sit at 10-1. 

Journalism (3-1)

Journalism is expected to prevail in 2025, and frankly it's hard to bet against the colt from Kentucky. With an impressive pedigree, an esteemed trainer in Michael McCarthy, and the fastest and most dominant speed profile in the field, this is the horse to beat.

Journalism has won four races in a row, including famed Derby prep race Santa Anita. He's 4-for-4 on dirt tracks and 3-for-3 in stakes races, with great off-the-post quickness and tremendous tactical speed. 

Sovereignty (8-1)

Sovereignty has distinguished himself as a strong closer, with past wins at Churchill Downs as well as Gulfstream Park. The Bill Mott-trained Kentucky colt has recent wins at Fountain of Youth and Street Sense, and runner-up finishes at the Florida Derby and MSW at Aqueduct. This is an elite dirt racer and a strong bet despite the short odds.

Sandman (8-1)

Another Grade-1 closer out of Kentucky, Sandman has superb tactical speed, superior stamina and fantastic graded-stakes form. He might have the best combination of speed, versatility and endurance in this field. Sandman enters the Derby in peak form, having recently captured the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. He's a stalker and a natural-born winner. 

Kentucky Derby 2025: Top value pick

Tappan Street (10-1)

Tappan Street easily serves as the best value bet in this field, coming off his first career stakes win at the Florida Derby in late March (a Kentucky Derby prep race). The Brad Cox-trained horse gets out of the gate sharply and with excellent momentum, and exhibits a potential-superstar gallop. In three career starts, Tappan Street has two wins and a runner-up at Gulfstream's Holy Bull.

Kentucky Derby 2025: Best sleepers

Coal Battle (30-1)

We listed 2024 winner Mystik Dan in this section last year, and now we have Coal Battle as our top sleeper this time around. With five wins on dirt since last July and a strong third in the Arkansas Derby in late March, this horse has fierce acceleration out of the gate, impressive tactical versatility and awesome closing speed. Don't sleep on the power of Coal. 

Tiztastic (20-1)

Tiztastic has experienced some ups and downs throughout his eight career races, but he's entering Derby weekend in solid form. With a win at Kentucky Downs in September and most recently the Louisiana Derby in March, Tiztastic could thrive in the lengthy dirt track of the Derby. At the very least, he's a strong trifecta or superfecta target. 

Kentucky Derby 2025: Highest-value long shot

Owen Almighty (50-1)

This year's field features an amazing array of speed, and no horse entered post-draw weekend with longer than 50-to-1 odds. Owen Almighty is the fastest horse in the long-shot grouping, and he can easily make some noise with a strong-enough break out of the gate.

Owen Almighty recently bagged a big win at the Tampa Bay Derby, and trainer Brian Lynch decided to roll the dice and go for the Derby. It won't be easy for a sleeper to knock off Journalism and the other favorites, but don't be afraid to drop a modest outright bet or a superfecta box wager on Owen. 

What is the best post position in horse racing?

As Edward Sutelan wrote for Sporting News ahead of the 2023 Kentucky Derby, "there is no right answer for the best pole position. The locations have different advantages and disadvantages based on the horses and the races."

That said, the horses drawing the lower post numbers have typically performed the best. The most winners have come from the No. 5 gate, while nine have come from No. 10 and No. 8 and eight have come each from No. 1 and No. 7. After the 10th gate, No. 15 has been the only double-digit with more than five wins.

Last year, Mystik Dan became the first winner out of No. 3 since Real Quiet in 1998. 

Here is the history of how many winners came from each post position since the starting game was opened in 1930: