Karen Bass just fired her winning formula

Karen Bass just made the biggest political move of her reelection campaign.

This week, Doug Herman, the veteran Democratic strategist who stewarded Bass to City Hall, is out. Julie Chávez Rodríguez, who most recently managed President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign and Kamala Harris’ failed presidential campaign, is in.

At first glance, this looks like an ordinary campaign shake-up.

It isn’t.

Karen Bass just made the biggest political move of her reelection campaign. MediaPunch / BACKGRID

Julie Chávez Rodríguez, who most recently managed President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign, is in. Chapman University

Bass did not simply hire a new campaign manager. Herman built and executed the 2022 strategy that saw Bass defeat Rick Caruso despite being outspent 11 to one. 

The lead political strategist who carried her into City Hall has exited. That makes this far more than a personnel story. It is a flashing red light over the Bass campaign.

Confident incumbents do not replace the political operation that got them elected because everything is going according to plan. They do it because the old playbook no longer works.

In Bass’ case, the reason is obvious.

She is no longer running as the promise of change. She is running as the author of four years of results.

Bass did not simply hire a new campaign manager. Herman built and executed the 2022 strategy that saw Bass defeat Rick Caruso despite being outspent 11 to one.  The National Trial Lawyers

That is a brutal campaign to run when the results are Los Angeles.

When Bass first ran for mayor, she could promise to tackle homelessness, improve public safety and restore confidence in City Hall. She could campaign as the steady hand, the experienced leader, the alternative to Rick Caruso and the person who would bring competence back to Los Angeles government.

Now voters are not judging the promise.

They are judging the performance.

Homelessness remains one of Los Angeles’ defining failures. Public safety continues to worry residents across the city. The response to devastating wildfires raised serious questions about leadership and preparedness — Bass was out of the country when they ignited. City services, quality of life and public confidence in City Hall remain major concerns.

Those are not campaign problems.

They are governing problems.

Chávez Rodríguez also managed Kamala Harris’ failed presidential campaign. AFP via Getty Images

Yet Bass’ answer is telling. She is not changing course. She is changing the people assigned to sell it.

That brings us to Rodríguez.

No one can seriously question her Democratic credentials. She has served in the Obama and Biden administrations and worked at the highest levels of national Democratic politics. 

But her most recent political assignment was managing Biden’s abandoned reelection campaign and then Harris’ failed presidential campaign, one of the Democratic Party’s biggest disappointments in recent memory. 

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In each case, the problem was not the campaign. It was the record voters were being asked to ratify.

That is not exactly the résumé one would expect from a campaign promising renewal.

At a moment when voters are frustrated with the results of Democratic governance in Los Angeles, Bass reached deeper into the same national Democratic establishment that has dominated politics for years. She did not look outside the system. She doubled down on it.

That choice tells voters something.

Bass has decided her problem is not the record.

It is the marketing.

It is the same calculation too many California Democrats make when voters grow restless. Rather than ask whether people are rejecting the agenda, they ask whether the message needs sharper polling, better ads, a more refined turnout operation. In their world, failure is never really failure. It is always a communications challenge.

Maybe consultants can improve the packaging.

But they do not clean up encampments. They do not make neighborhoods safer. They do not restore confidence after a crisis. They do not make city government work better.

This race has become unexpectedly serious because City Councilwoman Nithya Raman — once a Bass ally — has become a credible challenger from the left. 

Raman’s insurgent campaign has done something that hasn’t happened in Los Angeles in more than two decades: It forced a sitting mayor into a runoff. 

Instead of coasting toward another term, Bass is now rebuilding the campaign operation that first brought her to power.

That is not a sign of political comfort.

It is a sign that City Hall understands this election has become a referendum on Karen Bass’ record.

Campaign consultants can write better speeches. They can raise more money, refine polling, improve turnout operations and sharpen television ads. What they cannot do is erase what voters have seen with their own eyes.

Karen Bass has every right to change her campaign team. Every candidate does.

But voters should understand what this move really means.

Bass is replacing the man who got her to City Hall. Now she needs someone to sell what she did once she got there. That is a much harder assignment.

Because this time, Karen Bass is not asking Los Angeles to imagine what she might do.

She is asking Los Angeles to ignore what she has already done.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.