JPMorgan Favors Selling Two-Year Treasuries on Fed Rate View

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(Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists recommended selling two-year US Treasuries as a “tactical” trade, citing a resilient growth outlook that will make it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates aggressively.

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“The underpinnings of the economy are strong and it will be challenging for nominee Kevin Warsh to bend the FOMC to his will once he is confirmed and takes over as chair,” strategists led by Jay Barry wrote in a note, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee.

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The Wall Street bank’s view comes ahead of Friday’s crucial US inflation report that may provide fresh clues on the Fed’s next steps, with any sign of easing price pressures likely to fuel demand for shorter-dated, policy-sensitive government debt. Treasury yields have whipsawed this week, influenced by a technology stock selloff and strong US jobs data that helped spur debate about how Warsh — President Donald Trump’s pick to become the next Fed chair — will handle policy. 

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Traders are now pricing a quarter-point Fed rate cut in July and another by the end of the year. Prior to the stronger-than-expected employment numbers earlier this week, they’d virtually priced in a reduction in June. The two-year Treasury yield edged up two basis points to 3.47% in Asia Friday trading, after declining about five basis points in the prior session. 

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Some others disagree with JPMorgan. 

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Hedge fund manager David Einhorn is betting that a Warsh-led Fed will lower interest rates “substantially more” than markets are currently predicting. The co-founder of Greenlight Capital said he has bought Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures on expectations of a rally if the Fed reduces borrowing costs more aggressively. 

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JPMorgan expects US core CPI, which strips out food and energy, to have risen a “firm” 0.39% in January, due to early-year price pressures and the fading of lingering effects from the federal government shutdown. Bloomberg Economics’ estimate is for a 0.31% gain, matching consensus.

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“We think it will be difficult for front-end yields to decline significantly from current levels,” JPMorgan strategists wrote in the report. 

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