Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders' rise is a major outlier for rebuilding teams

Perhaps the most impressive part of what Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders have accomplished this NFL postseason is that, more often than not, the Commanders drafting Daniels would have been a mistake.

It has worked anyway, because Daniels is special.

The Commanders went 4-13 during the 2023 season. They owned the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft for a reason: their roster was terrible. They had an absolutely dreadful offensive line and defense, and precisely one offensive weapon (Terry McLaurin) who is considered an above-average starter. In other words, not a great destination for a rookie QB to come in and learn on the fly.

Historic trends show that when drafting a signal-caller, the ones who thrive are usually those drafted by teams already set up for success. This was the case for Patrick Mahomes. Same for Lamar Jackson. Same for Jalen Hurts. Same for Brock Purdy.

On the other hand, when a team drafts a quarterback expecting them to fix everything, it tends to require a lot of patience. Most teams don't have that patience, because once a player struggles on the field, the recency bias causes their shiny first-round pick status to lose all of its luster. Just ask the Cleveland Browns with Baker Mayfield, or the New York Jets with Sam Darnold.

Even when such a player excels individually despite the holes in the team around them, they will generally be held back from achieving significant success. Justin Herbert is yet to win a playoff game in his career. So is Kyler Murray. So is Tua Tagovailoa. Trevor Lawrence, who was considered the best QB prospect of his generation, has only one.

Simply put, using the tried-and-true rebuilding method, the Commanders would have been wiser to wait before taking their quarterback of the future. Sam Howell showed enough flashes in 2023 that he could have reasonably been given another chance under a different coaching staff, while Washington focused on improving at other positions of need. Then, if he still wasn't the answer, that's when the Commanders would look to go get their guy.

Instead, Washington set itself up to fail Daniels by throwing him into the fire -- and it resulted in an NFC Championship Game appearance in Year One. It's a historic outlier that there is no previous comparison for, and there may never be one again.