Italy vs. France prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for UEFA Nations League match Sunday

Sitting atop their Nations League group and in pole position to secure a seeded spot in the quarterfinals, a revitalized Italy hope to snatch the top spot as they host France in Milan on Sunday.

Italy have been maddeningly two-faced over the last decade, missing each of the last two World Cup tournaments while winning Euro 2020.

That has continued in recent years as well, flopping at Euro 2024 but need just one more result to erase that with an undefeated group stage performance in the Nations League. With four wins and a draw amidst a very difficult group that sports Belgium and Israel, they just need to avoid defeat to France and the top spot will be theirs.

France are without Kylian Mbappe, who was shockingly dropped by Didier Deschamps for this international window, and in his absence played to a scoreless draw with Israel at home midweek. It's now up to their still beefy attack to pick itself up and make a statement of intent before the knockout stage.

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Italy vs. France prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+225)
• Score prediction: Italy 2-2 France

Luciano Spalletti has truly revived Italy. It was rocky at first, but the Azzurri are in exceptional form at the moment, especially for a team which doesn't feature as many global stars as fans had become accustomed to. Since their Euro disappointment last summer, they have gone unbeaten in Nations League play thanks to a suddenly potent attack that has put up 12 goals in five games so far.

Yet they will know all they need is a draw to secure the seeded position in the quarterfinals, and they should manage at least that much against a Bleus side they pummeled in Paris in September, displaying their typical efficiency and ruthlessness.

Italy vs. France match facts

• Date: Sunday, November 17, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 8:45 p.m. local (2:45 p.m. ET / 11:45 a.m. PT)
• Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
• Referee: Slavko Vincic (SLV)
• Last meeting: France 1-3 Italy (Sep. 6, 2024 | UEFA Nations League)

Italy vs. France best bet

• Pick: Over 2.5 total goals
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

Even money odds on this selection is exceptional value. While both these sides are typically known for their defenses, it's been their attack that has taken center stage this Nations League.

Italy have done well up front despite a lack of big-name stars, getting goals from all throughout their lineup. Sandro Tonali became the latest to contribute up front, with his first international goal to bag a 1-0 win over Belgium just days ago.

France may be missing Kylian Mbappe, but don't let the scoreless draw with Israel lead you astray. France ripped off 24 shots, putting eight on target and generating a massive six big chances. Sometimes, it's just not your day, but don't let that blind you front backing their strong attack.

Italy vs. France prop bet

• Pick: Michael Olise to score or assist a goal
• Odds: +230 (FanDuel)

With or without Kylian Mbappe, no France attacker is in better form than Michael Olise, who is enjoying a flying start to life at Bayern Munich and has been excellent for the national team of late. With seven goals and four assists for his new club side thus far, Olise has yet contribute a goal for the national team early in his France career, but that is coming.

The 22-year-old ripped off four shots against Israel last time out without hitting the target, but the real unfortunate outcome was a failure to profit from a whopping six chances created in the match.  If he even looks half as incisive against Italy, he should tear the opposition defense to shreds.