Is Trey Lance a bust? College stats, injury history, and more to know about former No. 3 pick

College quarterbacks are under a scouting microscope from the second they step on campus. By the time drafts come around, the biggest names are typically players from blue-chip programs in the FBS. 

Every so often, though, there are some FCS quarterbacks who have turned enough heads that they are in the early-round draft discussion. In 2021, North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance had his name thrown around as a top option in the quarterback class. He was eventually selected by the San Francisco 49ers but was eventually traded to the Dallas Cowboys only two years into his career. 

With starting quarterback Dak Prescott out for the rest of the season due to a hamstring injury, and Lance being the backup to Cooper Rush, is it finally time to label Lance as a draft bust? 

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Trey Lance college stats

Lance played for the North Dakota State Bison from 2018-20. He was redshirted in 2018, but he managed to pick up two rushing touchdowns in the two games he was active. Lance took over as the starter in 2019 and led North Dakota State to a perfect 16-0 season, including an FCS Championship over a Curt Cignetti-led James Madison team. His statline that year was absurd, as he set the record for most passing attempts without an interception. Lance had 28 touchdowns through the air, 14 on the ground, and didn't throw a single interception that season. He also won the Walter Payton Award, which is often considered the "FCS Heisman."

Lance was set to be the starter in 2020, but the season was delayed until the spring due to the COVID-19 pandemic and he only played in one game before opting out to get ready for the draft. 

Trey Lance draft

Lance was projected to be a mid-tier first-round pick in 2021. His class included Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones. Lance ended up being selected third overall by the 49ers. Coincidentally, all five players were selected in the first round that year, but only Lawrence is still with the team that drafted him only three seasons later. 

Trey Lance injury history

Lance began his career in 2021 backing up Jimmy Garoppolo. Head coach Kyle Shanahan worked up some formations to get Lance on the field, particularly utilizing his legs anytime the Niners were near the goal line. The quarterback suffered a sprained knee in his rookie season that caused him to miss a week. At the end of the season, he revealed that he spent the entire year dealing with a right index finger injury that he had picked up during the preseason. 

Lance was named the starter for San Francisco in 2022. He only played in two games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. A future injury to Garoppolo led to Brock Purdy taking over under center, and after going 7-1 as the starter that season, he has yet to give the job back. 

Trey Lance trade

Lance has already been involved in two trades during his short career. San Francisco traded up to No. 3 in the 2021 NFL Draft in a deal with the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers sent the Dolphins their first-round picks for 2021, 2022, and 2023 along with a third-round pick in 2022 for the No. 3 overall pick that was used on Lance.

After the success of Purdy, Lance competed for the backup job ahead of the 2023 season. After signing Sam Darnold to a one-year deal and eventually naming him the primary backup, Lance was traded to Dallas for a 2024 fourth-round pick. The Cowboys have already declined Lance's fifth-year option, so, barring an extension, he is set to be a free agent at the end of the season. 

Is Trey Lance a bust?

So far, Lance has played in nine career games (four starts, one of which was shortened due to injury) and has 818 yards with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. He has added 252 rushing yards and another score on the ground. For someone who was acquired for three first-round picks and a third-round pick, he is absolutely considered a bust at this point in his career despite never really getting a chance to start over an extended period.

Lance could benefit from a change of scenery when he hits the market, so the book isn't closed on his career, but for now, there's no question his career has been a disappointment.