Inside Joe Gibbs Racing's road to the Phoenix finale: Strong stats, shaky luck, and high stakes

The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 is set, and Joe Gibbs Racing is in the spotlight once again. Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe will represent the Toyota powerhouse against Hendrick Motorsports’ Chevrolet duo of Kyle Larson and William Byron in Sunday’s finale at Phoenix Raceway for the Bill France Cup.

For Hamlin, the story has become a familiar one. The 44-year-old veteran has carried the weight of expectation for over two decades and could be nearing his last great opportunity. He leads the series with six wins this season and is making his fifth Championship 4 appearance. Briscoe, meanwhile, will make his debut appearance in the finale after a breakout year in the No. 19 Toyota.

Joe Gibbs Racing has won five of the eight playoff races, but arrives at Phoenix in mixed form.

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Joe Gibbs Racing’s journey to the Phoenix finale

Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin (11) and Chase Briscoe (19) lead at Gateway. Source: Imagn

Denny Hamlin’s No. 11 Toyota averages a 15.1 finish across the nine playoff races, collecting 270 points - enough to stay alive thanks to key victories. He won twice, first at Gateway and again in Las Vegas, punching his ticket early to Phoenix. Besides being runner-up at Kansas and a solid effort at Darlington, Hamlin’s highs have outweighed his lows.

Four top-10s in nine playoff races underline a hit-or-miss pattern that’s kept his team constantly adjusting. Chase Briscoe, in contrast, has been quietly consistent. The 30-year-old has turned out to be the postseason's biggest surprise with a 9.1 average finish and 337 points earned through nine races - the best of any driver.

Other than an engine failure at Martinsville, he has finished outside the top 10 only once, a 14th-place run at the Charlotte Roval. His playoff record includes two wins at Darlington in the Round of 16 opener and Talladega in the Round of 8.

Chase Briscoe celebrates after the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Source: Imagn

Still, Joe Gibbs Racing's playoff stretch hasn’t been without trouble. A string of mechanical issues has plagued their campaign. Hamlin’s Las Vegas win was followed by power issues at Talladega and a blown engine at Martinsville, while Briscoe’s run at “The Paperclip” ended early after his own motor gave out.

Team owner Joe Gibbs addressed the concerns on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, pointing to valve spring issues:

“I think it always concerns you, obviously, anytime you have a motor issue. But we feel like this morning we’ve been through every single thing that happened. We’ve got all the parts out and here and I think we have a plan, a strategy where we think we’ve got ourselves in a good position and it won’t come back to us this next week in Phoenix.”

Despite those setbacks, both Joe Gibbs Racing entries head to Phoenix determined to shake off the reliability cloud that has followed them all season.

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Joe Gibbs Racing ready for the Phoenix challenge

Denny Hamlin (L) with team owner Joe Gibbs (right) at Dover in 2024. DSource: Imagn

Few drivers have been as strong at Phoenix as Denny Hamlin. Among the Championship 4 contenders, his 10.6 average finish leads the series. Yet, the veteran knows that in NASCAR’s winner-takes-all finale, past form guarantees nothing. Twice in the last four Phoenix races, Hamlin has lost the lead in the closing laps, including once in March.

“I can lean on that experience,” Hamlin said on Actions Detrimental. “I certainly have been there before. I know the mentality. I know typically where my head space is at in the days leading up... during practice. And I'm just going to use all those results to refine how I approach this time around. Nothing is a given, but I’m confident that if I don’t have any negative unlucky breaks, I’ll be there... and in contention. It's just a matter of whether we got the speed and we got the execution. If we got those two things, I like our chances.” (41:49 onwards)

For Chase Briscoe, Sunday marks his first trip to NASCAR’s biggest stage. While his playoff performance has been near flawless, his Phoenix record remains modest with no top-20 finish in three of his last four starts. The No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team will rely heavily on preparation and composure to close the gap.

However, the Hendrick Motorsports pair poses a formidable threat. Kyle Larson, the 2021 champion, has four top-five finishes in his last five Phoenix starts and a total of ten top-fives at the track - his best at any venue. William Byron enters with an 8.0 average finish, one win, and three top-fives.

As the curtain rises on the 2025 finale, Joe Gibbs Racing’s mission is clear.

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Edited by Riddhiman Sarkar