Indonesia Aims to Curb Emissions Growth by 2035 in Forestry Bet

Indonesia aims to limit emissions growth to 23% by 2035 from 2019 levels through conserving forests and peatlands to mitigate pollution, according to a top official.

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Bloomberg News

Norman Harsono and Sheryl Tian Tong Lee

Published Jan 22, 2025  •  2 minute read

Peat swamp forest in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Photographer: Muhammad Fadli/Bloomberg Photo by Muhammad Fadli /Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — Indonesia aims to limit emissions growth to 23% by 2035 from 2019 levels through conserving forests and peatlands to mitigate pollution, according to a top official.

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The nation expects its total greenhouse gas emissions will reach between about 1.3 billion and 1.4 billion tons a year in a decade, Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq said in an interview this week, affirming draft targets released in August. Indonesia will submit its goals to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by mid-February, he said.

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The plan has attracted criticism for its heavy reliance on forests as potential carbon sinks and its limited ambition to cut emissions in polluting industries in the near term. Large ecosystems can absorb more carbon dioxide than they release but Indonesia’s forests have historically been a net carbon source due to deforestation, emitting more than 300 million tons a year on average between 2001 and 2023, according to Global Forest Watch. 

However, the government plans to turn its forests into carbon sinks by 2030. Including the impact from forestry and land, Indonesia would need to cut emissions 51% by 2035 from 2019 levels to be compatible with the Paris Agreement, according to a November analysis from Climate Action Tracker. 

Hanif said the new plan would achieve emissions reductions through forestry and land use programs such as conserving peatland and planting mangroves. Indonesia’s jungles are “very solid” with “big potential,” and potential new financing from carbon credits could come as soon as March, he added.

The country is grappling with possible green policy changes from deforestation for agriculture to coal usage under new President Prabowo Subianto, who took office in October. As one of the world’s top polluters, the nation is crucial to meeting the Paris-aligned goals, which aim to limit the Earth’s warming to 1.5C as a decades-long average.

“Policy coherence between ministries with competing goals is one of the biggest challenges,” said Jamie Wong, an analyst at Climate Action Tracker. “The big narrative is now on energy security and food security, so that will affect the outlook of Indonesia’s forests as a net sink.”

Signatories to the Paris Agreement are required to submit Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, once every five years. The non-binding commitments outline how nations plan to reduce their emissions over the following decade and are supposed to increase in ambition.

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