Indiana vs Ohio State could be ‘high noon’ for the 2025 Heisman Trophy race

The most prestigious award in college football could be decided in one upcoming game. Indiana vs Ohio State. While those teams do not face each other in the regular season schedule, those two teams are on a collision course with the presumed ‘point of impact’ being the Big Ten conference title game.

Heisman Trophy odds heading into week 11, courtesy of CBS Sports, includes seven quarterbacks, one wide receiver, and one running back comprising the top 10. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith and Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love are the lone non-quarterbacks on this list. Barring some unforeseen huge games, it's unlikely that his year’s Heisman will go to a non-quarterback as it did last year when Colorado receiver and defensive back unicorn Travis Hunter took home the award.

The two dark horse candidates are Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia and Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Both Pavia and Chambliss are interesting candidates, but they have a far way to go to get even with the top candidates. Both have solid team resumes and are ranked high enough to be playoff contenders. Another interesting candidate is Gunner Stockton from Georgia. Like Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, Georgia finds itself in a positive situation regarding playoff chances, but time might be running out for Stockton to make his Heisman push. 

The core of the Heisman debate will come down to four names. Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. Each of these four men have been the frontrunner for the award at some point in the season.

Alabama’s Ty Simpson had been the media darling for a number of weeks. However, as the race continued, the math began to take over. Simpson’s 20:1 touchdown to interception ration remains the best in the nation. However, the complete stat lines for Sayin and Mendoza are becoming too good to ignore.

As of today, Julian Sayin’s numbers would dictate he should be the frontrunner. His yards are the best among Power 4 conferences; his touchdowns are second among the top four candidates. With only three interceptions, he’s at the top of the overall list. Sayin’s eye opening stat though is his completion percentage.

The all-time record for the best quarterback completion percentage belongs to Oregon’s Bo Nix. In 2023 Bo Nix finished the season with a 77.45% completion percentage. Currently, Sayin is sitting at 80.7% for his completion percentage.  Provided that holds steady at or around 80%, Sayin would reset the all-time record.

While anything can happen over the next few weeks, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza seems to be Sayin’s most likely competition. Mendoza’s completion percentage is nine-points lower than Sayin, but every other noteworthy state is within a few percentage points of Sayin. Mendoza leads all top candidates with 25 touchdowns and has the second-best yards per pass attempt of those candidates.

Provided neither team stumbles before the end of the season, the overwhelming expectation is that Sayin and Mendoza will face off against each other in the Big Ten conference title game. Regardless of the outcome of that game, both the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers expect to make the college football playoff. The better performer of the assumed Indiana vs Ohio State title game is likely to take a lead in the Heisman race.

Ultimately the winner will come down to the Heisman vote, but a win in a head-to-head matchup that late in the process could go a long way towards solidifying that quarterback’s chances. With big games from either Simpson or Reed, this could become a very tight race.

Julian Sayin’s No. 1 ranked Ohio State take on Purdue this week. That game will kick off at Noon ET on the Big Ten Network. Mendoza and the No. 2 ranked Indiana Hoosiers travel to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. That game also kicks off at Noon ET but will broadcast on Fox.

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